The figures on beef consumption published by AnBord Bia would tend to suggest that the industry is at last beginning to shrug off the worst effects of the BSE crisis. It would be wrong to give the impression that the industry has emerged unscathed from the whole crisis - the damage is still keenly felt in every farm and cattle market in the State. But it is fair to say that the dire warnings about the future of the beef industry, made after the Commons statement about a possible link between BSE in cows and a new variant of CJD in humans, have not, thus far, come to pass.
The domestic beef market has certainly proved to be remarkably resilient, surviving both the BSE crisis and the various high-profile `angel-dust' cases. The figures from the food board signal a slight increase in consumption in the first two months of this year, when compared to last year. According to its figures, some 97 per cent of Irish households are continuing to purchase beef. Perhaps we should not be so surprised by these trends. The number of BSE cases in the State has increased significantly in the past year but the overall number of confirmed cases (about 200 in a national herd of some 7.5 million) compares very favourably indeed with the position in Britain, where over 165,000 cases have been identified.
It is to be hoped that the upward trend in the domestic beef market will provide a platform for a revival in our £1.1 billion export market, which declined by some 15 per cent last year. Today's report that Argentina is poised to provide intense competition for Irish beef in Russia, our largest export market, is hardly encouraging. It appears that the Russian authorities - who imposed a ban on beef from eight counties in the Republic last year - are now ready to accept up to 50,000 tonnes of beef from Argentina. Irish agriculture also faces the prospect of a complete review of Irish beef exports by the veterinary authorities in Moscow when the latest BSE figures are assessed in May.
There is a limited range of options available to the Government in such circumstances; diplomatic efforts and a willingness to give the Russians all the information they require can help. But there is also a need to rebuild consumer confidence in the Russian market. A high level of confidence in Irish beef has already been restored in the domestic market. But a sustained effort to revive confidence in Irish beef in Russia and our other key export markets is also required.
More generally, the use of the EU's export refund scheme to underwrite exports to non-EU countries, can help to cushion the blow for beef producers. But this - like the use of EU intervention storage - should be seen as no more than a temporary palliative. Irish beef exports will only prosper in the long term when there is consumer confidence in the product and when the Irish herd is declared to be BSE-free. Irish beef is still a healthy product. The onus is on everyone in the industry to ensure that all necessary steps are taken to guarantee the containment and eradication of the disease in the next few years.