Michael McDowell's stance has raised the stakes', writes Political Correspondent Stephen Collins
The crisis facing Bertie Ahern's leadership deepened dramatically last night following the demand by the Tánaiste, Michael McDowell, that the Taoiseach should answer fundamental questions about the circumstances surrounding the payment of £8,000 sterling to him in Manchester in 1994 and provide a full list of the donors involved.
The intervention of the Progressive Democrats leader, after a day of steadily escalating pressure on the Government, has elevated the political crisis facing the Taoiseach to a new level and raised serious questions about his ability to survive in office.
The previous two Fianna Fáil taoisigh, Albert Reynolds and Charles Haughey, were forced from office by their coalition partners, the PDs in 1992 and Labour in 1994, and Mr Ahern is now facing the same fate unless he can come up with a much more detailed and coherent explanation of the Manchester donation than he has done to date.
After initially giving the Taoiseach qualified support on Wednesday night, following his explanation of the €50,000 in payments from friends in Dublin, the Tánaiste raised the stakes considerably with his insistence that fundamental questions remained over the Manchester payment and his demand for a full list of those who had contributed the money.
The Opposition leaders also ratcheted up the pressure by calling Mr Ahern's continued leadership of the country into question for the first time. Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny maintained that his party would have forced him to resign by now if he had the same questions to answer as the Taoiseach. Labour leader Pat Rabbitte said that the issues now at the centre of the affair had raised the most serious questions faced by any taoiseach since the Haughey era.
After their initial caution last week about being too critical of the Taoiseach, in the light of the sensitive background of his marital separation, the Opposition had come to the conclusion yesterday afternoon that he was so badly wounded by his handling of the affair that they could safely attack him with no holds barred.
The harder tone adopted by the Tánaiste and the two main Opposition leaders arose directly from the manner in which the Taoiseach stumbled through a "doorstep" interview with journalists in Co Cavan at lunchtime yesterday. His third attempt to explain the circumstances surrounding his acceptance of the £8,000 payment from Manchester businessmen when he was minister for finance in 1994 simply made matters much worse.
Mr Ahern's refusal to accept that it was inappropriate for a Minister to accept a gift of such proportions from a group of foreign businessmen, his insistence that he had broken no tax law or code of guidelines for Ministers, and his refusal to name the donors, all set alarm bells ringing in Leinster House.
The place was already agog with apparent confusion over whether there would be a further Dáil debate next week.
Michael McDowell was taking his first Order of Business as Tánaiste and he initially withstood a barrage from the Opposition demanding a Dáil debate next week about the Taoiseach's problems. In the face of continuing pressure from Enda Kenny and Pat Rabbitte, the Government Chief Whip, Tom Kitt, suggested that all the party whips could meet to arrange something. This proposition was seized on by Mr Rabbitte and endorsed by the Tánaiste, to the clear chagrin of some Fianna Fáil Ministers.
The meeting of whips was twice postponed and eventually Mr Kitt offered 35 minutes for statements on Tuesday. The Opposition accused the Government of retreating from what had been offered earlier, but in fact it was more than they had expected at the start of the day's business. It meant that the Taoiseach's problems would again dominate next week's Dáil business.
Then came news of Mr Ahern's Cavan interview and his attempts to explain how he could speak to a group of businessmen in Manchester about the Irish economy when he was minister for finance and yet somehow not be there in an official capacity.
"I did the dinner a number of times . . . often go along, you know, to speak about what's going on in Ireland, what's happening . . . was it official? No, it was not an official dinner. I had no official script, my costs in Manchester I paid myself as I always do," he said.
"So, no official script, not an official function, not in my capacity as minister, paid my own way, spoke at the function, and on one occasion the assembled group of about 25, plus the group who were with me from Ireland, gave me the sum of money that I mentioned. That's all that happened."
Following his claims that the €50,000 he got from business friends in Dublin was a loan and not a gift, even though he had not paid any of it back in 13 years, the claim that the money he got in Manchester was actually a gift, but was not given to him in his capacity as minister, further eroded the Taoiseach's credibility.
That, in turn, prompted the Tánaiste to suggest there were "very significant matters of concern" which must still be clarified in relation to the payment. Ominously, Mr McDowell added he had spoken to the Taoiseach about the matter, and had read a transcript of the Cavan interview, but his concerns had not been put to rest.
Whether those concerns can be put to rest in the coming days will determine if the Government can survive, at least in its present form. If the Taoiseach cannot assuage the Tánaiste's concerns, some scenarios would emerge. The PDs could pull out of Government and Mr Ahern could continue on with the support of Independents; Mr Ahern could step down, and be replaced by a new leader who could continue in office with the PDs; or there could be an early general election.
Mr Ahern has the next few days until the Dáil resumes on Tuesday to ensure that none of those things happens, but his prospects of doing so now hang in the balance.