DECADES OF political domination at local government level came to an end at the weekend when Fianna Fáil was beaten into second place by Fine Gael in a national election, and pushed hard by the Labour Party. It was a trouncing of seismic proportions that will cause reverberations at all political levels for years to come. It is unlikely, however, to cause an immediate general election.
The successful Opposition party leaders, Enda Kenny of Fine Gael and Eamon Gilmore of the Labour Party, have called on the Government parties to resign because of their rejection by the electorate. Mr Kenny will table a motion of no confidence in the Dáil on Tuesday. But Brian Cowen has insisted he has no intention of resigning as Taoiseach and these horrendous results are likely to convince his colleagues of the need to regroup and reorganise rather than engage in political in-fighting. Voters have taken the opportunity to punish the Government for its mishandling of the economy that led to falling living standards and rising unemployment. Time and improved fiscal circumstances are the only factors that may alter that public mood.
The extent of the Fianna Fáil collapse was brought into sharp focus by the emphatic rejection of its candidates in the two Dublin byelections. In one case, the son of a former minister sought a seat; in the other, the brother of a former taoiseach. In both cases, the party secured less than 20 per cent of the vote, coming a poor third in Dublin South and fifth in Dublin Central, where the notorious Ahern political machine was spurned by constituents. The rout was comprehensive and was echoed by local election results.
The Green Party has been decimated. Its local authority base was shattered and it lost all seats in Dublin and Cork. Party leader John Gormley spoke of “listening carefully” to the membership and a time for reflection, but he emphasised there was no question of leaving Government. At the same time, his undertaking to renegotiate the programme for government carries significant risks.
Should Green Ministers fail to advance their agenda to the satisfaction of members – and Mr Cowen will be in no mood to make concessions that could cast him in the role of a weak leader – the Coalition arrangement may be undermined. Even before that, pressures are likely to emerge in relation to the Lisbon referendum and the contents of the December budget.
At this point, a key question is whether the collapse of the Fianna Fáil vote represents a temporary phenomenon or is part of a process that will bring about a fundamental realignment of political power in this State. Seven years ago, Fine Gael received such a defeat in the general election that political commentators wrote its obituary. Now, for the first time in its history, it has surpassed Fianna Fáil. The fundamental question now, however, is whether Fianna Fáil and the Green Party have the authority to carry the Lisbon Treaty referendum and a tough budget of spending cuts later this year.