SQUABBLING BETWEEN the main political parties over whether they are doing enough to ensure their supporters vote for the Lisbon Treaty does not augur very well for the Yes campaign with only 16 days to go before voting on June 12th.
Taoiseach Brian Cowen has challenged Fine Gael and Labour to intensify their efforts, while they insist they are doing all they can. Fine Gael voters are especially divided on the issue, with party leaders saying such accusations do more harm than good since their supporters resent such criticism from a new Fianna Fáil leader whose reputation depends on a Yes victory.
One reality behind this argument is that voters are increasingly disinclined to follow party lines on the subject of Lisbon, reflecting a wider electoral volatility in party loyalty. Anecdotal evidence from the campaign bears out the impression that insofar as they are interested at all in the issues (and many are not), voters want to hear informed rather than formulaic arguments. A great deal depends on prompt, detailed and relevant rebuttal of the many false claims made by the treaty's opponents, rather than the very general case that it serves Ireland's interests to vote for it, or personalised posters anticipating next year's local and European elections. The treaty is good for Ireland but the reasons why this is so need to be spelled out properly. That is the business of political parties in our representative democracy and unfortunately they are not doing it well on Lisbon.
To counter the trend requires a much more focused and enthusiastic campaign from the mainstream parties in the closing stages of the campaign, especially those in Opposition. Neither Fine Gael nor Labour is putting in the kind of effort mounted for a general election. Fine Gael's campaign diaries and engagements are relatively thin, especially in rural areas. Little of real substance has been heard from party leader Enda Kenny. He should have been much more actively engaged.
There is scant sign that Fine Gael or Labour are drawing advantage from their memberships of the main political groupings in the European Parliament, which could stimulate a more informed and appealing campaign. The Fianna Fáil campaign started too late and must now depend on a huge effort to get its supporters to the polls. The Greens are spancelled by their conference decision not to campaign for the treaty, but their two Ministers are only now becoming vocal in its favour. The Progressive Democrats have also done little so far.
Whether the treaty is passed will depend in large part on how many people vote, since on balance the higher the turnout the higher the likelihood of a Yes victory. But this cannot be taken for granted. The underlying positive attitude in this State towards a more effective European Union needs to be mobilised by accurate information, good arguments and enthusiastic leadership. The political parties who favour the treaty have much ground to make up in these respects over the next two weeks. They cannot assume the shortfall will be made up from elsewhere in society if they fail to take the lead.