THE SIGNALS coming out of Tehran are as mixed as ever – on the one hand sabre-rattling threats to seal off the Strait of Hormuz, through which a third of the world’s seaborne oil passes, and then, on Saturday, an offer of a new round of talks on its nuclear programme with six world powers.
Yesterday, to emphasise its ability to carry out the former, its media reported that Iranian ships tested missiles in the Gulf, and then later denied it, while its scientists announced that they have produced their first nuclear fuel rod, another step in Tehran’s efforts to achieve proficiency in the full nuclear fuel cycle.
In December, Iran reinstated an offer for UN nuclear agency officials to visit Tehran, though it did not say whether the International Atomic Energy Agency would be able to focus on suspicions that Iran is secretly working on nuclear arms.
Iran has seen four escalating rounds of sanctions imposed by the UN, and yet others by the US and EU, over its refusal to halt uranium enrichment. President Obama last week signed into law further measures against its central bank while the EU will consider still more at the end of the month.
The last round of talks with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany was held in January in Istanbul but ended in failure. Following remarks by Iranian diplomats suggesting reopening the talks process, an EU spokesman yesterday confirmed that the union is “open for meaningful discussions on confidence-building measures, without preconditions from the Iranian side”. No question, however, given Iran’s record of prevarication, of suspending sanctions.
Tensions have in recent weeks been worryingly ratcheted up in the region by the sanctions, Iran’s response – its threat to the Strait of Hormuz – the counter-response from the US navy’s fifth fleet in Bahrain, warning it will defend the Strait, and new US arms sales to the Saudis and UAE. All against the background of increased talk in Israel (and among US Republican primary candidates) of a pre-emptive strike against Iran.
Iran’s real intentions are unclear; its opaque internal political power struggle is a key driver of its international posturing. But this is a dangerous escalating game that is capable of spiralling out of control of the key players. Israel’s hand may not be stayed indefinitely and a strike on Iran would have devastating regional consequences. Its record notwithstanding, Iran must be given every chance to demonstrate good faith.