When an investigation or inquiry is announced, it is generally good practice to explain the terms of reference or at least to clarify the question or questions set for investigators. The Department of Enterprise, Tourism and Employment has not set out its terms of reference or list of questions – if any existed – for the Government’s investigation into allegations published in The Irish Times that large amounts of exports by Aughinish Alumina in Co Limerick have made their way into the Russian military supply chain for its war in Ukraine.
It might have been expected, however, that officials would have been asked to assess the likelihood that alumina exports are being employed by the Russian arms industry. After all, in the wake of the revelations, the Taoiseach stated that the Government would not tolerate “in any shape or form [exports] that end up as weapons or explosives that impact upon Ukraine”.
On Friday, Minister for Enterprise Peter Burke said that the final report by his department could not “confirm” that alumina was being used to supply Russia’s military industrial complex. In his statement, he acknowledged that it was extraordinarily difficult to gather accurate “internal trade data” from Vladimir Putin’s regime. But he claimed that such “information of a sufficient evidentiary level” would be necessary before the Government could act. Instead of coming to an assessment based on weighted probabilities and risk, the Government has set an impossibly high bar for incontrovertible data to emerge from Russia itself.
Nearly four months of investigation has finally resulted in this report, described by Social Democrats TD Cian O’Callaghan as “a classic fudge”.
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“On the one hand, it cannot rule out the possibility that Irish alumina is ending up in the Russian military supply chain. On the other hand, it will fall short of making any concrete conclusions,” O’Callaghan added.
The report will be sent to the European Commission; it will not be published in full due to “commercial sensitivities” - though The Irish Times obtained a leaked copy for reports published today - and its main conclusions were not disclosed to the Oireachtas before the summer recess. This is thin gruel.
A conclusion that the Government “cannot rule out” the possibility that Irish alumina exports are being used to manufacture Russian military equipment and weapons will be greeted with frustration, if not considerable anger, in Kyiv.
A member of Ukraine’s parliament, Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, has described Irish Government policy towards alumina exports as “surreal” – so much Irish aid to Ukraine is being distributed but, “at the same time, some of the products going out are feeding the Russian war machinery.”
Pina Picierno, vice-president of the European Parliament, was even blunter: “It is unacceptable that, while the EU funds Ukraine’s defence, a Russian-owned company operates undisturbed within a member state, supplying the Kremlin’s military industry.”
Tepid report
The delay in producing such a tepid report has coincided with a sharp increase in Russian demand for alumina from Aughinish. In the first quarter of 2026, just more than 50 per cent of exports from Aughinish went to Russia, compared with 43 per cent for 2025.
Ukraine’s government could be forgiven for believing that Russia’s war industry is amassing stocks of alumina in advance of possible future EU sanctions and that Ukrainians will pay a terrible price for such a delay.
Rusal, which owns Aughinish Alumina, is Russia’s primary aluminium producer, with smelters across the country. Russia’s war industry could not thrive without supplies of alumina.
According to an investigation by The Irish Times and the Organised Crime and Corruption Reporting Project, Russian smelters that imported alumina from Ireland sold more than $650 million of aluminium to a Moscow-based trading company that supplied at least 40 Russian arms manufacturers sanctioned by the EU.
Meanwhile, Sweden’s tax authorities recently concluded that the sanctioned Russian oligarch, Oleg Deripaska, remains in control of the energy conglomerate EN+ (which, in turn, controls Rusal) and that EU sanctions should be extended to include Rusal’s European operations.
Previous Irish governments opposed sanctions that would affect Aughinish, partly on the basis that Deripaska would no longer retain control over EN+. It is not clear whether the unpublished report makes any recommendation on whether the Government should act in relation to Aughinish following the Swedish assessment regarding Deripaska and EN+.
Increased demand for alumina
The spike in Irish alumina exports to Russia is part of a longer trend of increased demand for alumina since President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, a period of rapid growth in defence spending and arms production.
Russian imports also shifted in terms of country of origin. Unlike Ireland, the Australian government moved to choke off supplies of alumina to Russia in March 2022. For Australian prime minister Scott Morrison, the decision to ban alumina and aluminium exports was a straightforward one. He said: “Aluminium is a critical input to weaponry, including guns, ammunition and missiles. Russia relies on Australia for nearly 20 per cent of its alumina needs. Withholding those supplies is an effective way for Australia to hurt Russia’s aggressive regime.”
The sale of alumina to companies controlled by Rusal, the latter closely linked to Putin’s regime, was self-evidently a significant threat to the people of Ukraine. The consequences would literally be deadly.
There was no fudge, no evasive language – the Australian government concluded that the balance of probabilities was heavily weighted towards one outcome if it failed to act. Rising global demand meant that other buyers of Australian alumina were quickly identified. Exports of alumina increased in the years after 2022. Jobs were protected; the industry flourished.
On March 21st, 2022 – the day after the Australian government introduced its ban on alumina exports to Russia – Tánaiste Leo Varadkar, then serving as Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment, reportedly met with the British peer Greg Barker, a former business associate of Oleg Deripaska.
The full outcome of that meeting is unclear; the Government refused to release significant details of the meeting following a Freedom of Information request. Among the reasons cited were sensitivities relating to “security, defence and international relations”.
In an address to the Dáil just over two weeks later, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged Ireland “to introduce even more rigid sanctions against Russia that would really make sure that the Russian war machine will stop”.
Last week, Zelenskiy urged European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen to prevent Aughinish Alumina from sending exports to Russia.
The Government will send its inconclusive findings to Brussels. This is essentially kicking to touch; the European Commission will decide what Ireland should do next.
The Government’s grinding evasion over Aughinish contrasts with Australia’s clear-eyed reasoning four years ago and Sweden’s tenacious investigation into the Deripaska’s holdings. The State should not wait until others tell it to do the right thing for Ukraine and Europe. Instead, the Government should move to hit Russia’s war economy where it hurts.
Edward Burke is an assistant professor in the history of war at University College Dublin.
