The second half of 2025 proved a torrid time. Commission president Ursula von der Leyen opened her September state of the union address with the words “Europe is in a fight”. Europe finds itself battling a geopolitical and geoeconomic order for which it is ill prepared. It is simultaneously confronted with the continuing war in Ukraine unleashed by Vladimir Putin’s Russia, the shift in US policy on trade and security and tensions with China on the economic front and over its support for Russia.
All of this reveals itself in acute external pressure, as the EU struggles to come to terms with the transformation of international politics. It does so at a time when domestic politics in most member states have become more fragmented, contested and polarised with the rise of radical parties on the right and left. Government formation and governing have become a tougher business in all democracies.
When Europe’s leaders meet on December 18th for their last European Council of 2025, the tasks and tests they face are more severe than at any time since the global financial meltdown. This US administration is characterised by deep antipathy, bordering on contempt, for the EU. The long-awaited US National Security Strategy (NSS) published on December 5th marks a major shift in US foreign policy particularly in relation to Europe.
Unless the EU regulates the tech platforms, they are unfettered in their freedom to damage democracy and make social media unsafe, especially for children
Coming after US vice-president JD Vance’s speech to the Munich Security Conference, the NSS is another painful wake-up call for Europe, referring to the “civilisation erasure” of Europe and arguing that the EU undermines political liberty, sovereignty and free speech. The strategy is openly supportive of what are called “patriotic” forces in Europe, which is code for the radical right. Donald Trump’s administration wants to erase the achievements of European integration and destroy the project.
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The strategy confirms what has been evident for some time, too, in the administration’s aggressive attitude to Nato and Ukraine. It does not hold Putin’s Russia to account and continues to pressure Ukraine into giving up territory. Europe cannot rely on the US as a stable or supportive power in either trade or security. The ties that bind transatlantic relations are ruptured.
This US administration is characterised by deep antipathy, bordering on contempt, for the EU
On the surface, relations with China may not have been subject to the same level of turbulence, but they are deeply strained. China, while appearing to be neutral, backed Russia’s invasion of a European country and established a “no limits” alliance with Europe’s greatest security threat. Europe is facing a second shock driven by China’s difficulties with the US market, which has generated overcapacity, and the pace of China’s successful technological innovation which is hurting European manufacturers. Europe’s trade deficit with China quadrupled in volume and doubled in value between 2015 and 2024. Without correction, Sino-EU relations will deteriorate further.
Geopolitical pressure and complexity have left Europe’s leaders struggling to plot a path through these challenges. Europe is in a position of relative weakness because the exercise of power has shifted. The deployment of hard power and the weaponisation of interdependence have become all too prevalent as international rules and laws lose their effectiveness. This has exposed the incomplete nature of Europe’s power resources. It is evident that the single market and trade power cannot be utilised to their full potential when a continent lacks other instruments of hard power – notably, defence capacity or rare earth materials that it can weaponise. With either or both of these resources, you can engage in hard power politics. However, Europe is in catch-up mode across far too many domains.
At a time of shift and shock, clarity about priorities is vital. There are two that take precedence over everything else.
First, Europe has to prepare itself for a world in which it cannot rely on a supportive US in the realm of security and defence. This involves the immediate imperative of ensuring that Ukraine’s future as a free and sovereign state is secured. Europe must push back against a US peace deal that favours Russia. It must grasp the initiative on financing Ukraine with Russian frozen assets or else by collective borrowing. And it must continue to supply Ukraine with weapons as long as the war continues. Russia is not just fighting a war in Ukraine, but is committed to the destabilisation of Europe by deploying its hybrid war toolkit. Enhancing Europe’s defence capabilities is thus essential, and a future European Nato envisaged.
None of this is possible unless Europe attends to its political economy. The second priority is to strengthen the fundamentals of Europe’s economy. The future path to prosperity will demand an extraordinary collective European effort. Without proper investment, innovation and start-ups in Europe will look to the US. Europe lags behind in technological innovation, but there are hubs developing in different part of the EU that must be scaled. Europe cannot leave next generation technologies to the US and China. Energy costs are high in Europe, which should act as a further spur to hasten the energy transition. Given changes in the global political economy, strengthening the single market is back on the agenda but the EU needs to ensure that the benefits of reducing barriers are not harvested by China.
On the surface, relations with China may not have been subject to the same level of turbulence, but they are deeply strained
This requires the “old continent” to regain its confidence and agency, or risk becoming a plaything, not a player, in a world where politics, the use of power, and geopolitics are shifting rapidly. There are also things that Europe should not do. It might well simplify its regulatory regimes, but it should not jettison its regulatory power. Unless the EU regulates the tech platforms, they are unfettered in their freedom to damage democracy and make social media unsafe, especially for children. Nor should Europe sacrifice social safety nets or quality public services on the altar of competitiveness. Welfare systems must continuously adapt and adjust to changing demographics, but Europe should not race to the bottom. Nor should it abandon the green deal.
There are tough choices ahead for governments and citizens across Europe in the short and medium term. The Irish presidency of the Council, beginning in July 2026, is coming at an extraordinary time in world politics, and a moment when Ireland’s position in the EU is less comfortable than it was in the recent past.
Brigid Laffan is emeritus professor at the European University Institute (EUI) and chancellor of University of Limerick
