CONSTITUENCY PROFILE : DUBLIN CENTRALThe by-election to fill Tony Gregory's seat is as open as can be, writes HARRY McGEE
Tony Gregory was the most successful independent politician in the State, having been successively returned nine times to Dáil Éireann after first being elected in 1981. The other constant in this constituency has been the extraordinary electoral machine of former taoiseach Bertie Ahern. However, Dublin Central has always been one of the least consistent constituencies in terms of results.
Mr Ahern’s massive personal vote (which was almost two quotas in 2007) gave a lobsided quality to general elections here. Two years ago, his running mate, Cyprian Brady, got elected almost wholly on Mr Ahern’s surplus, having secured a paltry 939 votes (or 2.7 per cent). Likewise in 2002, Dermot Fitzpatrick, also hugely reliant on Ahern transfers, survived the challenge of Sinn Féin’s Nicky Kehoe by only 79 votes.
Labour and Fine Gael have both had mixed fortunes, usually at the expense of each other. Joe Costello seems to have nailed down the seat since 2002, though Fine Gael’s Paschal Donohoe caused a surprise two years ago when he outpolled Sinn Féin’s Mary Lou McDonald, with a 9.5 per cent showing.
Dublin Central is a far more mixed constituency than the solidly middle-class Dublin South. It takes in Dublin 1 and Dublin 7, and extends from East Wall to Cabra, taking in parts of Drumcondra, Glasnevin, Cabra and Phibsboro.
There are large pockets of high levels of unemployment and deprivation. But there are also many middle class areas and large swathes of privately rented apartments.
There is a much higher immigrant community than elsewhere, with some 27 per cent of the population being non-Irish. That perhaps explains the presence of an immigration control candidate.
The first thing that can be said is that the 2007 election result provides a poor yardstick. The Fianna Fáil ticket then secured 44.5 per cent of the vote. Bertie Ahern was hoping that this contest could be delayed until October, to prevent it being caught up in the overwhelming negativity surrounding the Government.
As it is, Mr Ahern has been canvassing (almost non-stop in recent days) for his older brother, Maurice. The campaign has included a large number of mail shots including a personal message from the former taoiseach.
The big question is to what degree Fianna Fáil will slip compared to the high of two years ago. The big problem for Maurice Ahern – which will probably cost him the seat – is that he will find it difficult to attract transfers. And they will decide the contest.
That may also be a problem for Mr Donohoe. He was the first declared runner and has mounted a very well-resourced campaign (11 different mailshots since January; posters and billboards everywhere). He remains the slight favourite.
However, there is a sense that he may have peaked a little early and may not benefit from transfers to the same extent as the left wing candidates.
Unlike the instantly recognisable Gregory, Maureen O’Sullivan, the “Gregory candidate” is a person who has been a “behind the scenes’ operator for 30 years though she will hope that her own relatively low recognition factor will be compensated by a groundswell of goodwill to Gregory. This factor should not be underestimated.
She will also attract strong transfers from both Labour and Sinn Féin as well as the Workers Party candidate, Malachy Steenson, a solicitor who has put in a strong campaign. David Geary of the Greens is unlikely to make a huge impact but will use it for profile-building.
Ivana Bacik is another imponderable. An independent senator, she is running for Labour and has been accused by rivals of being a parachute candidate from the more affluent southside.
While that factor damaged Sinn Féin’s McDonald in 2007, Bacik has been very strong on the canvass and is now being seen as a real contender.
With many young professionals in Dublin Central, Labour also believes Bacik will benefit from the party’s strong support levels in Dublin.
If she polls ahead of O’Sullivan and Sinn Féin’s Christy Burke, she is likely to attract more transfers.
The same can be said for O’Sullivan if she stays ahead of Bacik. If one or other remains close to Donohoe and ahead of Ahern, a higher transfer rate could decide it.
Nor should Mr Burke be written off. Sinn Féin almost won a seat here in 2002 but the veteran councillor will struggle to attract new votes and transfers. The outcome cannot be predicted with any confidence. It could be any one of five, though it will probably be decided between Donohoe, O’Sullivan and Bacik.
THE CANDIDATES
Maurice Ahern (Fianna Fáil); Ivana Bacik (Labour); Christy Burke (Sinn Féin); Paschal Donohoe (Fine Gael); David Geary (Green Party); Maureen O'Sullivan (Ind); Malachy Steenson (Workers Party); Patrick Talbot (Immigration Control Platform); Paul O'Loughlin (Christian Solidarity Party).