Fianna Fáil’s chances of clinging on to a seat hinge on big turnout of its dwindling support
THE MASSIVE drop in support for Fianna Fáil in Cork North Central in today's Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll mirrors the trend shown in national polls and confirms the party is in deep trouble.
Fianna Fáil’s chances of clinging on to a seat in Cork North Central hinge on whether the party’s declining supporters are more likely to vote than those who support Socialist Party candidate Mick Barry.
The poll indicates the Labour Party, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin are well positioned to win a seat each.
Labour’s Kathleen Lynch heads the poll with 18 per cent support. With a substantial increase in her vote since the last election, she is close to the quota of 20 per cent.
Lynch has strong support across all age groups and is particularly strong among women voters. In class terms, she is strongest among lower middle class and skilled working class voters. Her support is stronger again among those who say they definitely will not change their minds by polling day, so she could have a quota.
Her running mate John Gilroy is making an impact with 10 per cent support but the combined vote of the two, while impressive, appears short of what would be required to win two seats.
The Fine Gael vote is down since the last election but the party’s two candidates look to have enough between them to hold a seat for the party. The question is whether it will be Dara Murphy or Pat Burton.
A notable feature of the poll is the surge in support for Sinn Féin candidate Jonathan O’Brien. If the 16 per cent first-preference support recorded in the poll manifests itself on Friday week he will win a seat in the Dáil.
O’Brien’s vote is relatively evenly spread across the age groups but there is a huge difference in his appeal to the different social classes. He records no support among the best-off AB voters but is strong in the C2 and DE social categories in this predominantly working class constituency.
He is also much stronger among male than among female voters. This has been a feature of Sinn Féin support in opinion polls. The only doubt about O’Brien’s prospects is whether the strength of support in the poll will turn into votes on February 25th.
The same issue arises for Socialist candidate Mick Barry. He is marginally ahead of Billy Kelleher of Fianna Fáil in first preferences in the poll. Analysis of the transfers indicates he is capable of picking up more support during the counts, both from Independents and from spare Labour and Fine Gael votes as those parties’ leading candidates are elected.
Kelleher has one important advantage, though. His support is strongest among AB voters and among those aged over 65. These two categories are crucial as they tend to vote in higher proportions than poorer or younger voters.
Barry’s support is concentrated among younger voters and those from less well-off backgrounds. In contrast with O’Brien of Sinn Féin, Barry has significantly more support among women than among men.
Kelleher is also stronger than Barry among those who say they have made up their minds and will not change by polling day.
In order to hold his Dáil seat Kelleher will have to be ahead of Barry on the first count. The nature of his support as shown in the poll indicates that is possible.
On the other hand, Barry is likely to gain support as the count progresses and will stand a great chance of winning if he gets a significant transfer from Labour. The contest for the final seats is wide open at this stage.
The Green Party vote is down to 1 per cent and while there is no sign of any surge to Independents in this constituency, the rise of both Sinn Féin and the Socialist Party shows the volatile mood of the electorate.