FUTURE FOR LISBON - ANALYSIS:AS THE dust settles on the European Parliament election results, thoughts again turn to the Lisbon Treaty and the prospects for its approval before the end of the year.
Officials here and in other European capitals hoping to see the treaty passed in Ireland will be heartened by the result of Friday's European elections and the changed political landscape it represents. The wind has been knocked out of the sails of the main players of last year's No campaign. Libertas's ambitious pan-European project, whose entire raison d'etre was the defeat of the Lisbon Treaty, lies in ruins; the party's attempt to turn the European elections into a proxy referendum on the treaty has been an abject failure. Libertas managed to elect only one MEP - French incumbent Philippe de Villiers - despite boasting that it would gain up to 100 seats.
Libertas gambled big - and expensively - on the European elections, running a continent-wide campaign that cost millions.
The result, particularly the failure of party founder Declan Ganley to secure a seat, has cost it dearly in terms of both credibility and financial wherewithal for a second joust at the Lisbon Treaty. Last night Mr Ganley said he was bowing out of politics, leaving Libertas looking decidedly rudderless.
Any campaign Sinn Féin will run against the Lisbon Treaty ahead of the expected second referendum in the autumn will be weakened by the loss of Mary Lou McDonald as an MEP.
McDonald proved the linchpin of her party's campaign against the treaty last year, and her schtick as the MEP who knows how Brussels works and doesn't like it was persuasive for many voters.
As a former MEP, she will not have the same clout on the campaign trail. With McDonald out and anti-Lisbon campaigner Kathy Sinnott having lost to Labour's Alan Kelly in the South constituency, Ireland's new constellation of MEPs will contain just one lone voice against the treaty - newly elected Joe Higgins of the Socialist Party.
Last year the indefatigable Higgins drew heavily on concerns about workers' rights in his campaign against the Lisbon Treaty, and he punctuated his run for Europe with reminders that he remains implacably opposed to both spirit and text of the document.
Aside from the new complexion of Ireland's representation to the European Parliament, there are other positive signs for those anxious to see the treaty passed this year.
An exit poll carried out Friday chimed exactly with the findings of an Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll published earlier this month. The survey of voters interviewed as they left polling booths showed that 54 per cent would now vote in favour of the Lisbon Treaty and 28 per cent would vote against. Eighteen per cent said they were still undecided.
Many on the Yes side, however, warn there is no room for complacency. There are plans afoot for a civil-society-based Yes campaign far more robust and energetic than last year's effort, which was roundly criticised as half-hearted and dull.
But in the meantime, the Government's focus is on finalising the legal guarantees aimed at assuaging any remaining fears the electorate may have ahead of a treaty rerun. Before next week's EU summit in Brussels, Minister for Foreign Affairs Micheál Martin and Taoiseach Brian Cowen will shuttle around Europe to confer on the final wording of the guarantees.
It is expected the date for the referendum could be announced soon after that summit, before the Dáil breaks for summer.