Republicans try to keep on right side of history

Mairt∅n ╙ Muilleoir, managing editor of the Andersonstown News and a former Sinn FΘin councillor, came up with a Heaneyesque …

Mairt∅n ╙ Muilleoir, managing editor of the Andersonstown News and a former Sinn FΘin councillor, came up with a Heaneyesque phrase on BBC television the other night. Republicans would want to avoid ending up "on the wrong side of history", he advised.

It was a telling comment. Mr Gerry Adams would be conscious of its gravity after September 11th, Colombia and the yearning in the Northern Ireland community for political closure and stability, and who must take the bulk of the blame if that does not happen.

In the past week Mr Adams and other senior Sinn FΘin figures have been attempting to transfer some of the current political pressure away from the republican movement back on to Mr David Trimble and the British and Irish governments.

Signs are that while the focus may have shifted marginally they haven't been particularly successful; at least not as far as Dublin or London or Washington or the people at Ulster Unionist Party headquarters are concerned. No matter how much republicans resist, the only means of getting back on the sunny side of history is to do the needful on IRA weapons, they all say.

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There is still a reasonable possibility that the IRA will deliver, but nothing should be taken for granted. As a senior Sinn FΘin figure explained earlier in the week, the IRA has not taken a decision to begin decommissioning but with the "right context" it could.

For "context" read more demands. Centrally, it wants guarantees from Mr Trimble that if the IRA makes a start to decommissioning, unionists will then leave the issue to the IRA and the decommissioning body. It wants unionist commitments that they will then fully work the institutions.

In the light of past experience republicans need assurance that if they begin meaningful and verifiable decommissioning, unionists will not pocket whatever is delivered and then insist on more.

Mr Trimble this week tried to provide these assurances. He strongly indicated that if the IRA started decommissioning in such a fashion as to meet the legislative demand of these weapons being "permanently unusable and unavailable", then he would happily get on with the business of politics. Republicans worry about whether he can bring his party and Mr Jeffrey Donaldson with him.

Sinn FΘin also has brought its "shopping list" to the two governments. As well as further moves on demilitarisation, policing and safeguarding the institutions, it is also demanding the early release of those convicted of the manslaughter of Det Garda Jerry McCabe, and the right for Sinn FΘin politicians elected to the Assembly to sit in the Dβil.

The firm line from Dublin and London, however, is that the Weston Park proposals deal with the first three issues and, as far as the Irish Government appears to be concerned, it is not prepared to give on the two latter controversial matters.

"There is always room for more negotiation," said a senior Sinn FΘin figure this week, unconcerned by the tough talking from the two governments. "Well, there is always room for clarification," was the official response, indicating some potential for verbal fudge but not much more.

As we face suspension of the institutions in the absence of decommissioning next week, one senior British insider probably called it correctly when he weighed up the chances of an IRA gesture on arms: "There are two possible scenarios. The cynical one is that republicans are preparing for the blame game so that if it all collapses they can try and say it's all the fault of David Trimble and the British.

"The benign one is that this time they are serious, and that they are preparing the ground for a move on weapons."