Republicans are likely to retain Senate, but Democrats could regain control of House

THE Republican will retain control of the Senate but the House of Representatives could go to the Democrats, according to estimates…

THE Republican will retain control of the Senate but the House of Representatives could go to the Democrats, according to estimates on the eve of the US elections.

There are 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats in the Senate. To win a majority, the Democrats need a net gain of three seats. Their chances of achieving this breakthrough appeared to fade, over the weekend.

A New York Times/CBS News poll shows that 47 per cent of probable voters "prefer Democratic House candidates, against 41 per cent who back Republicans." If that margin is sustained today, it could give the Democrats control of the House, the New York Times reported.

The Democrats need a net gain of 18 seats to take control of the House.

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Thirty four of the 100 Senate seats - two for each state - are being contested. Sixty six senators - 34 Republicans and 32 Democrats - are not facing re election this year. Senators serve six year terms.

Of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives, Republicans hold 235, Democrats 197. (There is one independent and two seats are vacant.)

If the New York Times poll holds up, Congressman Newt Gingrich of Georgia the author of the controversial "Contract with America" - who closed down the US government for 35 days before and after Christmas last year, will not he re elected Speaker of the House.

On the other hand, Republican analysts are convinced they will retain control of both the House and Senate. If the voting is so close, final results of congressional elections will not be known until tomorrow.

Regaining control of the House would mean a great deal to a Clinton administration in its second term.

Already, the Republican Senate leader, Mr Trent Lott, is predicting "big troubles ahead for this President" in current and new investigations of White House complicity in soliciting money from Taiwanese and Indonesian financiers and business figures.

There is also the continuing Whitewater inquiries involving the President when he was governor of Arkansas, and the First Lady, Mrs Hillary Clinton, when she was a lawyer for the Rose law firm in Little Rock.

Eight Republican senators and nine Democrats are in close races. The Republican seats are in Colorado, Kansas, Maine, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oregon, South Dakota and Wyoming. The Democratic seats are in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Illinois, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nebraska and New Jersey.

Of these the more interesting contests probably are: Maine, North Carolina, South Dakota, Massachusetts, Minnesota and New Jersey.

Seeking a Senate seat in Maine is the former Democratic Governor, Mr Joseph Brennan. North Carolina has Senator Jesse Helms, a Christian conservative Republican, fighting to beat back a second challenge from a black Democrat, Mr Harvey Gantt, who has financial backing from the AFL-CIO, America's trade union, federation.

Senator Larry Pressler, Republican chairman of a Senate committee who was once touted as a possible presidential candidate, may lose his seat in South Dakota. In Massachusetts, Senator John Kerry, a Democrat, is trying to hold off the popular Republican Governor, Mr William F. Weld.

Minnesota has former Senator Rudy Boschwitz, a rich conservative Republican, trying to regain his former seat from Senator Paul Wellstone, a radical Democrat and academic.

In New Jersey, two members of the House, Mr Dick Zimmer, a Republican, and Mr Robert G. Torricelli, a Democrat, are waging a peevish and expensive contest for the Senate.

The results of court ordered run off elections for the House of Representatives in a few Texas congressional districts will not he known until next month. They will make no difference to which party wins control of the House of Representatives.