Prospects for progress bleak as DUP unlikely to talk to SF soon

Analysis: The main results of this Assembly election are as follows: Sinn Féin hammered the SDLP; the DUP surpassed the Ulster Unionists; Mr Jeffrey Donaldson is again chasing Mr David Trimble for leadership of the UUP; the Belfast Agreement is under pressure; and direct rule is likely to be here for the foreseeable future.

That makes very sour reading for the British and Irish governments and all those who support the Good Friday accord. "Stalemate" or even "History in the Unmaking" could be useful all-embracing headlines to denote where Northern Ireland now stands politically.

In this election thousands upon thousands of nationalists turned their backs on the SDLP - the party credited with primarily engineering the peace process and the Belfast Agreement - and gave their votes to Sinn Féin or stayed at home. This time 118,000 voted for the SDLP. In the 1998 Assembly poll they topped the poll with 178,000 votes. And similarly, albeit on a smaller scale, thousands of unionists turned their backs on the UUP and voted for the DUP or didn't brave the elements. Five years ago Ulster Unionists won 178,000 votes. This time they took 157,000 - and that's not accounting for the strong anti-agreement element of that vote. The UUP is damaged but not as severely as the SDLP.

The results send out a dreadful message to SDLP leader Mr Mark Durkan who must know how difficult it will be to put any sort of brake on Sinn Féin in the future.

How can a party compete with a movement? Just think forward to the next Westminster elections.

Based on the Assembly results Sinn Féin is now in a reasonable position to take the seats of the two icons of the SDLP, Mr John Hume's in Foyle and Mr Seamus Mallon's in Newry and Armagh, and if Sinn Féin continues to surge forward there is no guarantee about Mr Eddie McGrady's in South Down. That would be Westminster wipeout for the party and a possibly fatal psychological blow for the SDLP. But what can the SDLP do? Change policy? Hardly - it can do little but keep faith with the agreement. Change leader? That also would seem unwise - after all, who else is in the wings with the stature of Mr Durkan? Don't panic, lick wounds, regroup, sharpen up on tactics, is all that seems to be on offer for the SDLP at the moment.

Mr Durkan put as bright a face on collapse as he possibly could, saying that with its total of seats it is at least where Sinn Féin was in 1998 when it had 18 seats.

Rather dubious consolation though, especially if the SDLP's trend continues downward and Sinn Féin's upward.

As they traipsed from TV studio to radio studio yesterday with their large haul of seats Mr Gerry Adams, Mr Martin McGuinness and Ms Bairbre de Brún had to be congratulated for not appearing smug. Some of it crept through though - for instance those times when Mr Adams lectured the SDLP on how not to run election campaigns.

They were frequently asked would the IRA now act generously to inject some air to the deflated process, but there was no real answer. "We will use our mandate wisely," Mr Adams allowed. "We are now in a post-Belfast Agreement period," said DUP deputy leader Mr Peter Robinson, who if his elderly leader, the Rev Ian Paisley, stands aside could be the next Northern Ireland First Minister sharing the office of First and Deputy First Minister with Mr Martin McGuinness. Obviously the DUP and Sinn Féin are not going to share power in the short term. In the current deadlock the British government will not lift the suspension of the Executive and Assembly.

Any prospect of a return to devolution must involve the DUP and Sinn Féin negotiating with each other but whatever about Mr Robinson's private views, Dr Paisley has vetoed such contact. The review of the agreement can be formally triggered before Christmas but little will happen until the new year.

Even looking into the distance all that is apparent is political logjam. Mr Robinson talks about a "fundamental review" of the agreement but considering the tribal nature of this society and the respective real strengths of the four main parties any workable deal must incorporate the broad power-sharing philosophy of the agreement.

Sinn Féin can't be excluded. The DUP can happily crow about its success but unless Mr Robinson can somehow finesse Dr Paisley's no dialogue with Sinn-Féin diktat it isn't going to give Mr Robinson the power he craves. For such an ambitious politician that must be absolutely galling. Indeed, it might be the only hope for progress - although it must be emphasised that Mr Robinson has shown little public inclination of having the courage to contradict his leader. Who can contradict Mr Trimble when he said yesterday: "The DUP told the electorate they could produce a new agreement, but they can't."

And with dreary predictability we are back to another imminent challenge to Mr Trimble from Mr Jeffrey Donaldson. It will be hot and heavy when the UUP's Assembly team meets on Monday with the Donaldson faction arguing that Mr Trimble's leadership position is untenable and his supporters holding the line.

Mr Donaldson, speaking to The Irish Times, called on Mr Trimble to stand down. Pointing out that five of the UUP's 27-member Assembly grouping was now anti-agreement he said if there was not a leadership change the UUP would end up in the same position as the SDLP is in now.

Mr Trimble stressing that he has "every intention of continuing as leader" said that Mr Donaldson shouldn't be "so eager" to wish defeat for his party. He too found the silver lining: he entered the last Assembly with 28 seats, left with 26, and now has 27. "That is not a defeat."

All it will take is another 60 signatures and an Ulster Unionist Council meeting will be called to again rule on who should lead Ulster Unionism - Jeffrey or David, with Sir Reg Empey again a possible compromise candidate.

Unhappy times ahead and it could take a year or two before the DUP will trade with Sinn Féin.