The release of the McCabe killers was almost certainly agreed , writes Mark Hennessy
Last October, Bertie Ahern and Tony Blair organised a complicated series of statements, actions and promises to bring about a final, historic Northern peace deal.
The plan was simple, if tortuously agreed: Gerry Adams would say the IRA's war was over; the IRA would decommission enough weaponry to convince doubters.
David Trimble would then agree to serve alongside Sinn Féin in the Northern Ireland Executive, and to the re-establishment of the Assembly.
Once they were back on track, the British would scrap remaining military posts along the Border and elsewhere, and move on a variety of human rights and equality actions.
That was the public agenda. There was also a private list of trade-offs and concessions: some between the governments and individual parties; and some very, very private one-on-one deals.
Despite the Government's evasions this week, one of those ultra-secret conditions was the delayed release of the four men who killed Det Garda Jerry McCabe on June 7th, 1996, in Adare, Co Limerick.
The British government was not told about it; though it suspected the deal's existence: "It wasn't anything to do with Her Majesty's government, it was an Irish decision," says a British source.
Leaving Dublin that morning the Taoiseach was nervous, believing that not enough had been done. He was right. Within hours, it had come apart following Gen John de Chastelain's appearance at the microphones.
Listening to the Canadian, observers knew within seconds that the plan was doomed, since he was unable to convey the scale of the weaponry destroyed or decommissioned by the IRA.
Since belatedly accepting them as IRA members, Sinn Féin has wanted the men held in Castlerea Prison released. Negotiators even tried to have the issue dealt with just hours before signing the Good Friday agreement.
Deeply annoyed by this week's row, the Taoiseach has made a virtue of being the man faced with taking a horrible decision in the cause of the greater good. Such an action would deeply offend him, he said; yet he went on quickly to warn that unpalatable decisions are part of the price to be paid, if 30 years of conflict are to end.
And that is the key to the debate of the last few days. Mr Ahern is saying that he "would be" prepared to accept release; i.e., that he has not done so yet.
Gerry Adams is saying that Mr Ahern "had" accepted it.
In reality, the only reason the men are not out by now is that the October package unravelled, regardless of the Taoiseach's statement that he would inform the garda's widow first.
The deal's disclosure causes problems. The Government is embarrassed to have its oft-repeated promise that the men would never walk free exposed as hypocrisy.
Some argue that Sinn Féin "leaked" the story to embarrass the Taoiseach and the Minister for Justice, Mr McDowell, who have spent months lambasting Sinn Féin.Though one can never be sure, this is doubtful given that Sinn Féin must realise that an association in the public mind with garda killers just weeks from an election is hardly the best election call. It has made the agreement of a final deal more difficult: since the McCabe killers' release will top the list of questions every time peace moves are afoot.
The Minister for Justice promised rank-and-file gardaí yesterday that the men are going nowhere. Such promises, as there is no chance of speedy progress on a Northern settlement, are easily given. And they will be just as easily broken.