Poll shows dramatic drop in Yeltsin's support on eve of vote

AN ELEVENTH HOUR poll no published in Russia, shows a dramatic drop in support for Pre dent Yeltsin on the eve of the country's crucial presidential election.

Sources in Moscow also claim a strong surge of support for Gen Alexander Lebed, a strong nationalist who has advocated the restoration of law and order as his principal aim.

The findings issued by the Institute for the Sociology of Parliamentarianism (ISP) run contrary to all other recent polls, which have given Mr Yeltsin a 10 point lead over his main rival, the Communist candidate, Mr Gennady Zyuganov.

But the ISP, which polls a sample of 6,000 instead of the usual 1,000 to 1,600 people, has been the only organisation to gets the forecasts right in the parliamentary elections of 1993 and 1995.

ISP chairman Mr Nugzar Betaneli put Mr Yeltsin's support at 32.7 per cent (down 7.3 from three weeks ago) with Mr Zyuganov on 35.6 (up 4.6), Gen Lebed on 11, the liberal candidate Mr Grigory Yavlinsky on 10 and the madcap right winger Mr Vladimir Zhirinovsky on 7.5 per cent.

If no candidate wins more than 50 per cent of the vote tomorrow, a second round run off will be held in July between the leading two contenders.

Simply because the ISP got things right in the past does not mean it will correctly forecast the result this time, but the poll confirms the beliefs of independent observers that the race will be much closer than was previously predicted.

It now seems certain that no candidate will win outright tomorrow and this could lead to a number of eventualities including the cancellation of the second round by agreement between Mr Yeltsin and the communists.

Mr Zyuganov in his final press conference in Moscow spoke of his policies having already been victorious in that most of them had been used by Mr Yeltsin as election promises.

Mr Yeltsin himself had, following the communist victory in the parliamentary elections last December, lurched towards the communist position.

There is also the possibility that Mr Yeltsin might not accept defeat. He said as much in a television interview on Thursdays night, admitting that he was not psychologically prepared for such an eventuality. The same goes for the communists, who are likely to claim a rigged election if Mr Zyuganov does not get through.

Mr Zyuganov has promised not to resort to violent street demonstrations but there are those among his supporters, including the hard line Stalinist Mr Viktor Anpilov, who are unlikely to follow his lead.

The most likely scenario, however, is that Mr Yeltsin and Mr Zyuganov will fight it out in the second round with the odds still", on a Yeltsin victory as supporters of Gen Lebed and Mr Yavlinsky are likely to support him in order to stop the communists.

Mr Yeltsin, in his former home base of Yekaterinburg, was still confident of a first round victory but appeared to woo Lebed supporters by saying that his successor in 2000 was among his opponents today.

"There is such a man," he said, uttering the catch phrase used ink Gen Lebed's television advertisements."

He also said he would make serious changes in his cabinet to pursue reforms but that radical democrats would certainly not be included. Just three days ago he said that only minor changes in middle ranking cabinet posts would be made.

Reuter adds Mr Yeltsin ended his re-election campaign yesterday with a rallying cry to Russians to unite behind him in tomorrow's poll and promised a major government reshuffle if he wins.

"We must be together. Together we will win," he told 15,000 chanting and cheering fans at a rock concert in Yekaterinburg on the last day of campaigning.