House of Commons looks to unlock Brexit riddle

After months of rumours, rancour, resignations and recalcitrance, it seems incredible to think that the first mooted Brexit D-Day is mere hours away.

While April 12th is the new March 29th in terms of the probable exit day, it is still noteworthy that MPs are only today finally getting down to unlocking the essence of the riddle: finding a path to a Brexit that could command majority support.

In our lead this morning, Denis Staunton and Pat Leahy outline how MPs will vote on alternatives to Theresa May's Brexit deal.

In a piece detailing what the day holds, Staunton outlines how it will play out.

May’s Brexit deal: MPs set to vote on alternatives

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Why Border checks may be inevitable in a no-deal Brexit

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Brexit: May tells Varadkar she believes Commons will support deal

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“At 2pm on Wednesday, the speaker, John Bercow, will choose which options should be put to a vote by MPs, who will debate them for five hours. The selected proposals will then be put on a ballot paper and MPs will be asked to vote Aye or Noe to each of them, and they will be able to vote for as many of the proposals as they wish to support.”

The results of those votes will be published around 9pm.

What could be on the table? Votes on a customs union, a second referendum, or even a withdrawal agreement without the backstop. This, clearly, would be unacceptable to the EU and the Irish Government who have said since time immemorial there cannot be a withdrawal agreement without the backstop plan for the Border.

This process of testing the support for all the options is likely to continue until next Monday.

There will also be much focus today on what the immediate future holds for Mrs May.

Expectation is building that she may announce a date for her departure in a meeting with her MPs. This could be a bargaining chip as she prepares to try to push her deal over the line a third time.

Technically, the third “meaningful vote” on the deal could take place as early as tomorrow, but there is no clarity on that yet.

There are some indications, too, that the tide may be subtly turning for May. Leading Brexiteers Jacob Rees-Mogg and Boris Johnson signalled yesterday they are ready to vote for her deal because they fear it is the only way to ensure Britain leaves the EU.

One thing is certain: today is likely to prove another tricky day with plenty of twists.

Follow all of the latest developments over at irishtimes.com.While you're there, take a look at The Irish Times view on the recent forecasts for the post-Brexit economy.

The Leaving Cert: testing new ground

Just over a year ago, a review of how the Leaving Cert operates was announced by the National Council for Curriculum and Assessment (NCCA). This was welcome - and much needed given the fact the senior cycle system is dominated by high-pressure exams and a hugely competitive points race.

Indeed, it has been shown the pressure of the Leaving Cert is causing stress, burnout and mental health problems among students.

This morning, Carl O’Brien reveals the review has found Leaving Cert students should be assessed on a staggered basis over two years instead of facing a single set of summer exams.

“The proposal is one of a series that, if agreed, would amount to the biggest changes in the Leaving Cert in half a century,” writes O’Brien.

Consultations were held with more than 2,500 students and hundreds of parents and teachers across 41 schools as part of a review by the NCCA. What happens next to the plan? O’Brien reports the proposals will feed into a report to Minister for Education Joe McHugh later this year.

Mr McHugh, not in his role even a year, could end up being the Minister who reforms a system that was introduced nearly a century ago. But there’s a long way to go on this road, and as O’Brien notes this morning: “While policymakers are ultimately aiming to reach consensus on the future shape of senior-cycle education, this will almost certainly be easier said than done.”

A changing political climate

The Oireachtas Committee on Climate Action is expected to meet today to try to sign off on a controversial report that is due to be published on Thursday.

Central to that report will be the important matter of a new carbon tax. The issue of climate change cannot be solved without a carbon tax, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar told the Dáil yesterday.

The Taoiseach knows - and acknowledged this weekend in Wexford - an election can happen any time. And he knows, too, how politically tricky imposing a new tax could be in these crucial months ahead.

That is probably why he was so quick to dismiss claims the carbon tax would increase fourfold in the next budget. “There is absolutely no prospect of a carbon tax increase of that scale or anything remotely approaching it.”

The Government position is that the money raised will be ring-fenced and given back to people in the form of increases in the fuel allowance and in increased tax credits.

At present, there is no agreement on the tax model. Solidarity-People Before Profit and Sinn Féin are opposed to increasing the tax. This is political.

Fianna Fáil aren’t playing ball either. The party says it does not support the “fee-and-dividend” approach of returning revenue raised to households as it was “a gimmick” and would rather see the extra money raised go into related schemes such as retrofitting. What happens in that committee room today will be one to watch.

Best Reads

Simon Carswell reveals that Revenue Commissioners has completed the recruitment of the 400-plus staff it planned to have in place for the UK's original departure date from the EU this week.

Conor Gallagher has the latest on Lisa Smith, the alleged Islamic State supporter.

Fresh from a weekend jaunt to the Fine Gael national conference over the weekend, here's Miriam Lord's Dáil sketch.

Groups consulted for an official review of the Leaving Certificate believe it is too narrowly focused on academic learning, Carl O'Brien writes.

Cliff Taylor on why Border checks may be inevitable.

Playbook

At 10.30am, Minister for Communications Richard Bruton takes parliamentary questions on his brief.

Leaders’ Question’s will be taken at midday.

Questions on promised legislation will be taken at 12.32pm.

At 1.02pm, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar takes questions from the Opposition.

At 1.47pm there will be statements following the most recent European Council meeting.

Topical issues will be taken at 4.32pm.

Private Members’ Business is up at 5.20pm with a motion on agriculture from Fianna Fáil.

The Aircraft Noise (Dublin Airport) Regulation Bill 2018 will be back before the Dáil after this.

The Dáil adjourns at 10.15pm.

Seanad

At 10.30am, commencement matters will be taken.

At 11.30am, the order of business will begin.

Senators will consider the Land and Conveyancing Law Reform (Amendment) Bill 2019 at 12.45pm.

At 2.30pm, they will discuss a motion in relation to period poverty brought by the Oireachtas Womens’s Parliamentary Caucus.

At 4pm, Tánaiste Simon Coveney will appear to discuss issues in relation to Northern Ireland.

At 5.30pm, Private Members’ Business will be taken - namely the Protection of Employment (Measures to Counter False Self-Employment) Bill 2018.

At 7.30pm, the Seanad adjourns.

Committees

The Joint Committee on Justice meets at 9am to scrutinise the Civil Liability (Amendment) (Prevention of Benefits from Homicide) Bill 2017. This Bill is informally known as “Celine’s Law” and seeks to prevent killers benefitting from the estates of their victims.

At 10am, the Joint Committee on Children and Youth Affairs will meet the Irish Foster Care Association on the topic of the recruitment and retention of social workers.

Also at 10am, the Joint Committee on Transport and Tourism and Sport will discuss the controversial BusConnects and MetroLink plans with representatives from National Transport Authority

At 1.30pm, the Joint Committee on Public Petitions meets.

The Joint Committee on Climate Action meets at 2pm.

The Select Committee on Budgetary Oversight also meets at 2pm.

The Select Committee on Employment Affairs and Social Protection will hear from Regina Doherty about revised estimates for her department at 2.45pm.

The Select Committee on Business will also meet Minister Heather Humphreys on revised estimates.