Floating voter trends leave lot to play for before general election

Thursday's Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll contains welcome news for Fine Gael, with early evidence of a recovery in support.

On 24 per cent, Fine Gael have rebounded five points and will look to maintain this momentum through to the general election.

Labour, on 7 per cent, appear to have bottomed out, improving by one point on our December poll.

Sinn Féin (up two points to 24 per cent) shows no signs of retreat, while Fianna Fáil (down four points to 17 per cent) and Independents/Others (down four points to 28 per cent) have each taken a step backwards.

Interviewing for the latest poll took place on Monday and Tuesday of this week, when the national mood was buoyant. Voters had spent the previous week celebrating St Patrick or gazing skyward to catch a glimpse of the solar eclipse.

On the economic front, all the indicators lately appear to be moving in the right direction. Ireland is storming ahead, spurred on by the potent combination of a weaker euro, low interest rates and strong economic growth in the UK and the US. The fastest-growing economy in Europe, again.

This abundance of good news and positive sentiment has given Fine Gael a boost.

The party can rightly claim to have led a Government that has more than stabilised the economy. Yet, somewhat puzzlingly perhaps, the party is still a long way adrift of its 2011 general election performance.

Rejuvenated economy

Many of the 36 per cent of voters that gave their first preference to Fine Gael in 2011 are not minded to make the same choice the next time, which suggests the party was elected to do more than just fix the economy, or that a rejuvenated economy has not yet delivered the benefits or relief that the public had hoped for.

In our latest poll, we asked voters which party they chose in the last election in order to identify how loyal voters have remained - and where those who are not loyal have gone.

Does knowing where Fine Gael voters have gone tell us something about why they switched? Perhaps. One interpretation, for example, is that these voters were disillusioned with party politics as much as with Fine Gael, as most have gone to Independents/Others or are undecided.

While a gain of one point for Labour is not significant, at least the trajectory is upwards.

Unfortunately, with multiseat constituencies and support averaging at 7 per cent (ranging from 10 per cent in Dublin to 4 per cent in Munster and Connacht/Ulster), Labour seats will be hard won at the next election if nothing changes in the meantime.

Lapsed Labour voters also display symptoms of party-politics fatigue, with Independents/Others their preferred destination. It is worth confirming Labour voters are more likely than Fine Gael voters to have drifted to Sinn Féin since the election.

Once again, Sinn Féin have been in the media for all the wrong reasons, and again they have emerged unscathed in electoral terms. In fact, support has increased to 24 per cent, a gain of two points.

Robust core vote

Sinn Féin has a remarkably robust core vote. Our analysis shows that 86 per cent of Sinn Féin voters in the 2011 general election have remained loyal to their party, compared to 58 per cent for Fianna Fáil, 50 per cent for Fine Gael and 27 per cent for Labour.

If a vote for Sinn Féin is a vote against austerity, clearly the rising economic tide has not yet lifted all boats.

Tens of thousands protesting against water charges at the weekend may not be new news, but it is a reminder of the pain and anxiety caused by cuts, taxes, debt and job losses that is still being felt by a large cohort of the population.

It is important to keep in mind that a booming economy has the potential, on one level, to benefit Sinn Féin.

It is a lot easier to suffer austerity when you feel everyone is suffering together. It hurts more if you think others are escaping while you are being left behind.

Sinn Féin’s rise has been compared to that of Syriza in Greece. Indeed, opinion and exit polls from Greek elections bear out these comparisons.

Our polling colleagues in Ipsos Greece and pollsters Metron Analysis tracked the rise of Syriza from a party with single-digit support in 2010 to 27 per cent support in the 2012 national election.

Between 2010 and 2012, Sinn Féin made almost identical gains. But what swept Syriza into government earlier this year with 36 per cent of the vote was a surge in support from voters aged 55 and older.

Many older voters live on very modest incomes, yet Sinn Féin has consistently underperformed among these voters, especially among the 65-plus age group from whom Sinn Féin wins just 16 per cent support (Irish pensioners have probably been more insulated from austerity than in Greece, where pensions were cut).

Getting the attention of older voters without alienating the core Sinn Féin vote could form the cornerstone of an election strategy, if for no other reason than older voters get out and vote.

Fianna Fáil have registered their lowest poll rating in almost three years. With 17 per cent support, the party is only three points above its crisis low.

The drop of four points for Fianna Fáil looks like the yin to Fine Gael’s yang. Both are now parties of the right, fishing much of the time in the same pond.

We have to go back as far as April 2012 to find an Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll where both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael moved in the same direction. If the Fine Gael vote proves to be as resurgent as the economy, there may be limited room for Fianna Fáil to grow in the short term.

Voter frustration

The dynamic at the left end of the spectrum is just as intriguing.

In the past few years, Independents/Others (including smaller parties) have feasted on voter frustration with party politics.

This is potentially about to change as they swarm in preparation for an election.

Either this coalescing will boost the Independent vote (if it convinces voters Independents are more influential as a group) or damage it if they lose their independence and, with it, a key point of difference.

Leadership satisfaction ratings have more or less followed the party support trend – Enda Kenny is up a whopping nine points to 28 per cent, Joan Burton is up six points to 31 per cent, Gerry Adams is unchanged on 26 per cent while Micheál Martin is one point lower on 24 per cent.

The role of party leader has become increasingly important in Irish politics as parties are shaped more by policy than history. Voters are more open than ever before to being persuaded.

If you define a floating voter as someone who has switched loyalties since the last election, then a massive 45 per cent of voters would fall into this category. There is a lot to play for.