With the ASTI voting overwhelmingly against the Labour Court recommendation, the Department of Education now has to face the prospect of holding exams without the help of 17,000 teachers.
By any logistical measurement, it is a mammoth task. Last year even with a full complement of teachers, the Department's resources were stretched to the limit.
There was barely enough personnel to carry out the oral and practical exams and a small number of third-level students were needed to correct some Junior Certificate papers because there were not enough teachers.
Against such an alarming background, the Department will have to be resourceful and bold to stage and correct this year's exams successfully.
Whatever plans officials eventually implement are likely to displease many and satisfy few, but the critical question in terms of manpower is: who is going to mark the thousands of papers?
This will be the most troublesome part of any contingency plans the Department has in mind.
Students could probably stomach members of the public invigilating at exams, but they would be dismayed by the idea of non-teachers marking the precious papers that hold the key to their futures.
Even using a small number of final-year third-level students to mark Junior Certificate papers raised the hackles of many parents last year. What would be the reaction if the Department was to use huge numbers of non-teachers this year? One can easily guess.
Even if the Department resigns itself to courting this level of unpopularity, the logistics are hardly encouraging. Acquiring a large number of people even remotely suitable to mark papers as complex as, for example, Leaving Cert Maths is not going to be easy.
There is a potentially rich supply of markers from the ranks of the Teachers Union of Ireland (TUI), but its members will stay on board only if the Department does not use any non-teachers.
This causes a real bind. With just the TUI, the Department will be short thousands of ASTI markers, but if it tries to make up the difference with non-teachers the TUI has said it will walk away.
Other sources of examiners also bring their own problems. Third-level academics might be suitable, but the ASTI may ask IFUT, the lecturers' trade union, to show solidarity and decline to participate. While this would be ignored by some, it may be enough to reduce seriously the numbers available.
Academics would not be familiar in many cases with the second-level curriculum and some parents would be worried that the marking would be at best erratic.
Third-level students would also face this handicap. But they would also be hampered by not having any experience of marking papers - either at second or third level.
There have been some suggestions that professional groups - such as accountants and actuaries - could correct papers relevant to their fields. While they would doubtless bring expertise to the marking process, they would be inexperienced in marking papers and may have little knowledge of the syllabus.
There is also a major question mark over whether people from relatively well-paid professions would bother coming forward to correct papers for what most teachers regard as relatively modest sums, bearing in mind the arduous hours involved. They earn between £1,000 and £2,000.
The Department is aware of all these drawbacks but has no choice but to press ahead with contingency plans which everybody in the teachers' dispute hoped would never see the light of day.
Parents' primary concern will be the integrity of the results their children receive. They will want to see the Department making every effort to ensure the credibility of the Junior and Leaving Cert exams is maintained.
At present, the Department uses senior examiners to oversee and supervise teachers when correcting exam papers. These senior examiners have years of experience and are entitled to take a sample of corrected papers to see standards are being maintained. This system could become even more important if non-teachers are being used this year.
But it will not be enough, as any non-teachers will also need to be given guidance on the syllabus, on the standards expected and the sometimes complex marking schemes.
eoliver@irish.times.ie