It's all down to trust as UUC considers strategies

David Trimble and Jeffrey Donaldson through the Belfast television and print media were last night making their separate pitches…

David Trimble and Jeffrey Donaldson through the Belfast television and print media were last night making their separate pitches to the 900 or so delegates who comprise the Ulster Unionist Council.

Trust my leadership and my strategy and like Frank Sinatra let me do it my way, was Mr Trimble's effective message. We must have an IRA decommissioning deadline, was Mr Donaldson's.

So, once again today the two wings of unionism represented in the UUC are gathering in the Waterfront Hall, Belfast, prepared to wage further internecine political battle. Once again Mr Trimble's leadership is on the line, and once again the draining divisions within the UUP will be evident for all to see.

Earlier in the week the mood in both the Yes and No camps of Ulster Unionism was quite relaxed, but last night there was some evidence of stage fright ahead of today's confrontation. Actors recommend a little pre-performance nervousness because it illustrates that they are fired up for the trials ahead.

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So, maybe the anxiety affecting both the pro- and anti-Belfast Agreement protagonists has a positive side. They are concerned that this Christmas shopping Saturday they won't be able to "get our people out to vote". In the Yes bloc there is an additional worry that because of changes in its composition the UUC is now more hardline.

At the time of going to press there was still no agreement on a unifying motion for today's meeting as favoured by Mr Donaldson. The Lagan Valley MP and the No bloc wanted some form of deadline incorporated into any compromise motion, while Mr Trimble was keen to maintain the pressure for further IRA disarmament but equally keen to avoid the dangerous D-word.

The UUC meeting is beginning at 10 a.m. and right up to and perhaps even through the meeting itself there could be efforts to find a consensus motion.

This is the critical period. It will test both the mettle and the number-crunching abilities of both sides. If Mr Trimble judges he has the votes he won't want to be a party to any motion that threatens specific sanctions against Sinn FΘin in the absence of IRA disarmament by a particular date.

But if he reckons that he is losing the momentum he may feel compelled to sign up to a motion that, at least, has the whiff of ultimatums, deadlines or sanctions. It has happened at other crucial UUC gatherings. The British and Irish governments and all the other pro-agreement parties have warned him that such an act would be utterly counterproductive, and up to last night Mr Trimble appeared generally to agree with that counsel.

In the absence of a compromise motion this will be a stark Yes versus No contest. For the antis, the UUP honorary secretary, Ms Arlene Foster, is proposing action against Sinn FΘin if IRA decommissioning does not begin by February 1st.

It's a two-pronged motion. Without "significant" movement on IRA weapons by St Brigid's Day Mr Trimble must again ban Sinn FΘin's two ministers from attending North-South Ministerial Council meetings.

And without complete IRA disarmament a month later on March 1st an Ulster Unionist motion must be put to the Assembly to exclude Mr Martin McGuinness and Ms Bairbre de Br·n from the Executive. If that motion fails Mr Trimble must withdraw his Ministers from the Executive.

Mr Trimble's motion on the other hand avoids mention of sanctions or deadlines. It "notes" that the agreement requires decommissioning and "supports the leader" in his efforts to achieve that objective. It calls on Gen John de Chastelain's decommissioning body to be "pro-active" in achieving paramilitary disarmament.

Mr Trimble says that at the UUC annual general meeting in March he will present a comprehensive report on the operation and implementation of all aspects of the agreement, including decommissioning.