Is it only a matter of time before Sinn Fein obtains some real political power in the South?

Regular watchers of Sky News during the Mitchell Review of the Belfast Agreement would have become familiar with the delegations…

Regular watchers of Sky News during the Mitchell Review of the Belfast Agreement would have become familiar with the delegations from the various political parties. These groups included the back-room party officials and advisers along with lesser-known politicians who had peripheral - but nonetheless important - roles in the negotiations taking place inside Castle Buildings at Stormont.

It would not have gone unnoticed by habitual viewers that as the cameras zoomed in on key players like David Trimble or Gerry Adams, three or four supporters would invariable surround their leaders in a show of loyalty as they briefed the media.

When the Sinn Fein leaders stepped out to provide their analysis of where the process was at any given time, one man was almost permanently positioned in strategic view of the cameras. Meet Sean Crowe, a Sinn Fein councillor from Tallaght, Co Dublin. Gerry Adams calls him Jack, as did most of the potential voters in Dublin South West during the 1997 general election when this reporter accompanied the Sinn Fein politician on the hustings.

Whether known as Sean or Jack, he is an important figure for Sinn Fein. His political fortunes will determine the progress achieved by Sinn Fein as an all-island political party seeking to fulfil its goals through involvement in both the Dail and the Northern Assembly. Indeed, if Sinn Fein is to make a serious breakthrough in southern politics then the Tallaght-based councillor will have to be successful at the next general election.

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The general view within the established political parties in the Republic is that Sinn Fein has the ability to return up to six TDs at the next election. Along with Crowe there is the possibility of Dessie Ellis in Dublin North West; Martin Ferris in Kerry North; Sean MacManus in Sligo-Leitrim.

And then with good fortune, combined with the right candidates, there could be wins in places like Louth and maybe even one of the two Donegal constituencies. Talk that Gerry Adams may contest the Louth constituency is for the moment being taken as just that - talk.

Given the multi-party nature of recent governments in the Republic the significance of the peace process for politics on the southern side of the border has not been lost on seasoned political watchers. A functioning Executive in the North, with Sinn Fein participating like any other party, will have implications for future government formation in the Republic.

Put succinctly - Sinn Fein is likely to be a potential partner in a future coalition government in the Republic. This reality is often forgotten in all the ceremonial treaty signings which followed the hard graft of negotiating the Belfast Agreement.

The pace and scope of the changes of recent years have been truly meteoric. It was only in 1985 at a bitter and divisive ardfheis that Gerry Adams, Martin McGuinness and their supporters won the day in ending the absentionism policy in relation to participation in Dail Eireann. That recognition of the southern parliament, and in effect the southern State, can now be seen as a key moment in what is now called the peace process.

In 1997 Caoimhghin O Caolain became the first Sinn Fein TD in three-quarters of a century to take his seat in Dail Eireann. Sinn Fein is hoping that further seats will be won at the next general election through a combination of goodwill generated among the electorate from the peace process and also confirmation that the party can be a responsible partner in government as evident from the experience in the North. The hope is that two ministers working productively in the North's Executive can only be a help.

Moreover, since the merger of Labour and the Democratic Left there is a gap in the political market for the anti-establishment segment of the vote. The DL mopped up that vote in the 1980s and early part of the decade just ending. Sinn Fein has targeted certain urban areas which have been ravaged by drugs and by-passed by recent economic prosperity.

While some TDs privately question the methods used by Sinn Fein activists in the pursuit of their objectives, the results of the recent local elections confirmed the foothold which the party has secured in parts of Dublin. And that reality is causing some unease within all the parties in Leinster House.

The majority attitude that prevails is that while it may be all very well for southern politicians to convince unionists to deal with Sinn Fein, accepting republicans as normal politicians in the Republic is another ballgame entirely. However, if the Ulster Unionists are able to work with Sinn Fein why not a future administration in the South involving Fianna Fail or indeed Fine Gael?

And there are lessons to be learnt from recent political history. Remember 1989 when Fianna Fail dropped its core value of single-party government to snuggle up in office with the PDs. And then after the 1992 general election John Bruton would not countenance doing a deal with Proinsias De Rossa and his DL colleagues. However, after two years working as part of the opposition to the then Fianna Fail-Labour government, Bruton changed his perspective and successfully led the three-party Fine Gael-Labour-DL rainbow coalitions.

After the next general election it may not only be John Bruton who is going to have to consider supping with the long-time pariahs of Sinn Fein. It may well be that the emergence of Sinn Fein will hurt Bertie Ahern most as Fianna Fail slips some of its working class and nationalist support to Gerry Adams and his colleagues.

Indeed, it is with hawk eyes that Fianna Fail has been viewing Sinn Fein. Although they speak disparagingly about Sinn Fein in private, the lessons from the recent past in the Republic is that post-election, all bets are off.

Kevin Rafter can be contacted at krafter@irish-times.ie