Impressive packaging, but time will tell about the content

Ariel Sharon and Mahmoud Abbas went home to domestic realities complicated by their Aqaba statements, writes David Horovitz in…

Ariel Sharon and Mahmoud Abbas went home to domestic realities complicated by their Aqaba statements, writes David Horovitz in Jerusalem

The rhetoric was stirring, as indeed it was when Israeli and Palestinian leaders launched the Oslo peace process at the White House 10 years ago.

A US president was shepherding Middle Eastern protagonists towards a hoped-for permanent accord, just as another president did in Washington in 1993.

The Israeli and Palestinian leaders pledged to do their utmost to make a success of the new peace initiative, just as they did last time. However, after the failure of the Oslo process - the relentless terrorism, the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin, the growth of Jewish settlements, the collapse of the Camp David summit in 2000 and the subsequent 32 months of Intifada confrontation - rhetoric and summitry and pledges of progress have less impact on mainstream Israelis and Palestinians these days.

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That's the major difference between that White House ceremony on September 13th, 1993, when Mr Rabin and Mr Yasser Arafat promised to end the conflict, and the admirable sentiments delivered by the two prime ministers, Mr Ariel Sharon and Mr Mahmoud Abbas, against the gentle backdrop of Aqaba yesterday.

Just as they did 10 years ago, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the other Palestinian groups which promise never to reconcile themselves to the fact of Israel's existence, are now vowing to defy the call to peace, to maintain their resistance, to retain their weapons.

And just as they did in 1993, leaders of the Jewish settlement movement are vowing to resist any evacuation, while some of their spiritual leaders brand the prime minister's readiness to relinquish territory a betrayal of the divine will, thus provoking fears that one or other extremist disciple might resort to political murder.

But unlike 1993, the new "road map" initiative is not merely being derided by those on the hysterical and sometimes violent margins.

It is being received with more scepticism than optimism, too, among those Israelis and Palestinians who consider themselves to be members of the mainstream; surveys show that while most Israelis support the road map, most also doubt that it will lead to a permanent peace accord.

Most Palestinians, for their part, are still supporting the "armed Intifada" - which Mr Abbas promised yesterday to quell - and regard Mr Arafat, who is still issuing words of praise for suicide-bomb "martyrs," as their only legitimate leader.

Yet for all the bitter scepticism, the rhetoric in Aqaba was notable and stirring. Mr Abbas's speech differed so substantially from the Arafat presentations at past failed peace accord-signing ceremonies.

It was a sharp, thoroughly businesslike oration - full of simple unambiguous commitments: "We repeat our renunciation and the denunciation of terrorism against the Israelis, wherever they might be," he pledged.

No vague language that might intimate subtle approval for attacks on settlers in the West Bank, just an unequivocal pronouncement: "The armed Intifada must end and we must use and resort to peaceful means in our quest to end the occupation and the suffering of Palestinians and Israelis. Our national future is at stake and no one will be allowed to jeopardise it."

And from Mr Sharon, architect of Jewish settlement and long-time opponent of Palestinian statehood, the most dramatic of political reverses.

"It is in Israel's interest not to govern the Palestinians, but for the Palestinians to govern themselves in their own state," he declared, doubtless to moans of despair throughout the Israeli right. "A democratic Palestinian state fully at peace with Israel will promote the long-term security and well-being of Israel as a Jewish state."

Underlining the scale of his personal redirection, he added: "We can also reassure our Palestinian partners that we understand the importance of territorial contiguity in the West Bank for a viable Palestinian state. Israeli policy in the territories will reflect this fact."

Within minutes, however, President Bush was gone and Mr Sharon and Mr Abbas were heading home to domestic realities immensely complicated by the statements they had made.

Will Mr Abbas manage to stop the bombings and shootings, bringing calm to Israel and in turn precipitating an Israeli military withdrawal from the army's forward positions deep in the West Bank?

Does he have the authority and the support? Will Mr Arafat help or hinder him? Will Mr Sharon, who made no mention yesterday of dismantling established settlements, actually prove willing to make his oft-promised "painful concessions" and relinquish sufficient land for viable Palestinian statehood? Will Mr Bush, soon to be focusing on re-election and anxious not to alienate potential supporters, honestly remain engaged in the long-term?

And if they do make headway, will Mr Sharon and Mr Abbas survive - not only politically but also physically? The summit, the peace packaging, was just fine. Now we wait for the substance.