Fianna Fáil is set to hold at least three of its four seats in the European Parliament, despite the slump in the party vote, but Libertas founder, Declan Ganley, is unlikely to be elected, according to the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll.
The Fianna Fáil MEP at risk is Eoin Ryan in Dublin who could lose out to Mary Lou McDonald of Sinn Féin in the battle for the last seat in the capital.
Another MEP in difficulty is Kathy Sinnott in the South constituency who is facing a challenge from the Labour Party and Sinn Féin.
The poll also shows that Fine Gael is facing an uphill struggle to retain its current five seats while Labour will hold its existing seat and is in with a strong chance of gaining two more.
The leading vote getter in the poll, which was conducted with mock ballot papers, is Mairead McGuinness of Fine Gael. Brian Crowley of Fianna Fáil is the second biggest vote getter in the country.
The poll was conducted from Tuesday to yesterday of this week among a representative sample of 2,000 voters. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 500 people in each of the four Euro constituencies. The margin of error is 2 per cent.
Declan Ganley of Libertas is on just 9 per cent of the first preference vote in the North West constituency and would need to double that vote to have a chance of winning a seat.
Jim Higgins of Fine Gael leads the field in the constituency with 20 per cent, closely followed by Pat “The Cope” Gallagher of Fianna Fáil on 19 per cent and Independent, Marian Harkin, on 18 per cent. Sinn Féin candidate, Padraig MacLochlainn is on 10 per cent, followed by Mr Ganely on 9 per cent. The likely winners in North West are Mr Higgins, Mr Gallagher and Ms Harkin.
In Dublin, which has lost a seat to become a three-seat constituency, Gay Mitchell of Fine Gael leads the field with 26 per cent, followed by Proinsias De Rossa of the Labour Party with 21 per cent and Mary Lou McDonald of Sinn Féin with 14 per cent.
Eoin Ryan is back on 11 per cent followed by Independent, Patricia McKenna, on 8 per cent, Joe Higgins of the Socialist Party on 7 per cent, Deirdre De Burca of the Greens on 6 per cent and Eibhlin Byrne of Fianna Fail on 5 per cent. Caroline Simons of Libertas is on just 1 per cent of the vote.
While Mr Ryan will get significant transfers from his party running mate he will need to improve his first preference total to have a realistic chance of edging out Sinn Féin to hold his seat.