Dublin's homicide rate is increasing faster than other European capital cities, a new book by the ESRI will reveal.
The book, The Best of Times? The Social Impact of the Celtic Tiger, concludes homicide rates are soaring in Dublin because of increased alcohol consumption, migration and an upsurge in fatal, drug-related gangland violence.
A comparison of homicides in EU capital cities for which data was available shows the rate in Dublin increased by 44.5 per cent when the period 1990-1992 was compared with 2000-2002.
This is well ahead of the next worst capital, Vienna, where the homicide rate increased by 28.6 per cent. London, where the rate increased by 8.2 per cent, was next worst.
All other capital cities for which figures were available had a declining homicide rate.
The trends in Dublin at present are likely to be much worse because gangland murders have increased very significantly since 2002, the last year for which the international comparative figures are available for.
Last year saw 26 gun homicides in the Republic, a record figure, most of which occurred in Dublin.
Minister for Justice Michael McDowell said he believes gangland crime poses as significant a threat to Irish society as paramilitarism during the Troubles.
He has moved to combat increased gangland activity with several measures in the Criminal Justice Bill, published last week.
These include a stricter bail regime and tougher sentencing for drug dealers, including a mandatory 10-year sentence for first-time offenders caught with drugs worth €500,000 or more.
The new homicide analysis compares homicide rates for the 15 EU capital cities before the accession of the other current EU member nations. Full comparative data is available for 11 cities.
The Best of Times? will be published by the ESRI and the Institute of Public Administration shortly.
Its chapters cover subjects such as crime, the economy, healthcare, religion and property. The chapter dealing with crime trends was written by Dr Ian O'Donnell, director of UCD's Institute of Criminology.
As well as comparing changing trends in EU capitals, Dr O'Donnell also outlines the average annual homicide rate in the 15 first EU countries.
Northern Ireland is the homicide capital for the period 2000-2002 with an average of 28.6 per million population annually. Finland is next with 27.7 homicides per million and Scotland is third with 22.5 homicides per million. The Republic ranks seventh worst, with 15 homicides per million annually between 2000 and 2002. However, Dr O'Donnell's research finds the situation is worsening here much more quickly than anywhere else.
"It is clear that while the rate of lethal violence in Dublin is not out of line with other European capital cities it has increased dramatically at a time when the international trend is downwards," he writes.
He also notes than while Ireland boasted the lowest rate of recorded crime in 2001 compared with our European neighbours, this may be because we are not as meticulous as other EU states in compiling statistics.
The author notes: "One factor that distinguishes Ireland is that the lack of information on crime and punishment makes serious debate and rational policy formulation extremely challenging."
Ireland's rate of imprisonment is also very low compared with other EU states. In 2002, for example, there were 81 people in prison for every 100,000 population compared with 96 in Germany, 126 in Scotland and 139 for England and Wales.