The Year of the Dragon may herald firey times for China . . . and the rest of the world, writes CLIFFORD COONANin Beijing
THE YEAR 2011 was one of the quieter years in the last decade in China – no natural disasters, no headline events, relatively robust economic growth despite the slowing world economy. Except for occasional gripes about the country’s human rights record, China spent the year bedding down its growing global influence and trying to stop inflation and cool property prices.
Next year is unlikely to be as quiet. January sees the start of the Year of the Dragon, one of the most auspicious years in the Chinese zodiac but also one in which great changes take place.
After years of simmering growth and no significant challenges to single-party rule by the Communist Party, the Year of the Dragon in 2012 is going to prove a more difficult year to steer for the Chinese leadership.
The European financial crisis is hitting China’s biggest trading partner, occupation in the village of Wukan in the south over unscrupulous land grabs has put pressure on the leadership, and people are getting their views across.
There are always great expectations for the Dragon year.
The controversial artist Ai Weiwei, in an interview early in 2011, told me how he did not expect any major change in China in 2011 because it was Year of the Rabbit, not an auspicious one when it comes to major events. “This year [was] a lot of rabbit business, but the Year of the Dragon is always a big year,” he said.
The main political focus will be the beginning of the transfer of power at the top of the Communist Party. In October, Xi Jinping will take over as general secretary of the Communist Party from Hu Jintao, while Li Keqiang will be installed as premier as Wen Jiabao steps down.
The transfer of power should run smoothly, but there are structural issues emerging as the economy slows from the double-digit percentage growth rates of recent years to something around 8 per cent. The yawning wealth gap between the rural poor and the rich of the eastern seaboard and the south will become a bigger problem next year. Even in rich areas in the south, the lack of representation in the face of official corruption has become a problem.
Villagers in Wukan protesting against what they see as heavy-handed Communist Party rule took over the village and drove the cadres out.
The internet, particularly Weibo, which is similar to the banned Twitter service, has driven the protest. It also provided a major platform for anger over a high-speed rail accident in July, much to the government’s irritation.
The system of controls known as the Great Firewall of China does much to censor the internet, but Weibo has proven difficult to keep under wraps. The past few weeks have seen moves to contain it however, such as requiring people to use their real names when registering their Weibo identities. If there are signs of greater pressure on the party through these online mediums, we can expect more measures to tighten control of the internet.
The big guns are pessimistic on the outlook for China in 2012. Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at the Stern School of Business at New York University, and the man known as “Doctor Doom” sees flaws in China’s growth model. “The construction boom is starting to stall, just as net exports have become a drag on growth, owing to weakening US and especially euro zone demand. Having sought to cool the property market by reining in runaway prices, Chinese leaders will be hard put to restart growth,” he wrote.
Nobel-prize winning economist Paul Krugman says China “is emerging as another danger spot in a world economy that really, really doesn’t need this right now”.
China is aware that the easy ride may be over. Foreign minister Yang Jiechi told the People’s Daily that the world economic outlook remained precarious.
“Our country’s international status and role is more important than ever, but risks and challenges are also on the rise. Overall, our country is still in the stage of developing of strategic opportunities,” he said.
Clifford Coonan is Beijing and Asia Correspondent
