Bush leading Gore by 54% to 37%

Governor George Bush's lead in a Gallup poll has jumped to 17 points following last week's Republican Convention in Philadelphia…

Governor George Bush's lead in a Gallup poll has jumped to 17 points following last week's Republican Convention in Philadelphia. Of "likely voters" polled, 54 per cent were for Mr Bush and 37 per cent for Vice-President Al Gore.

Before the convention the same poll, commissioned by CNN/USA Today, gave Mr Bush an 11-point lead over Mr Gore. lead. As recently as July 16th, the two rivals were equal.

But Democrats pointed out that in 1988, the Democratic candidate, Mr Michael Dukakis, coming out of his convention was also 17 points ahead of his Republican rival, Mr George Bush, and still lost the election. However, 1988 was seen as an exception as in six of the past seven presidential elections, whoever led in the polls between the conventions went on to win the election in November.

Governor Bush after a three-day whistle-stop tour in industrial states has returned to Austin, Texas, for a rest before beginning a second train trip to campaign later this week in California, Oregon and Washington state. He will be joined by his former rival for the Republican nomination, Senator John McCain.

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The convention in Philadelphia was expected to give Mr Bush a boost in the polls just as the Democratic Convention in Los Angeles next week will help Mr Gore. But other results from the latest poll show voters favour Mr Bush over Mr Gore to handle issues which are seen as traditionally Democratic such as social security, medical insurance and education. This will worry the Gore campaign.

Also of concern to Democrats is that in spite of the booming economy during the Clinton-Gore years in the White House, 52 per cent prefer Mr Bush on this issue compared to 39 per cent for Mr Gore.

Mr Bush, according to this poll taken after his widely praised convention speech, also leads Mr Gore among key voter groups such as independents, women, suburbanites and Catholics.

Meanwhile Mr Pat Buchanan, who is hoping to win the nomination of the Reform Party at its convention later this week, has admitted that he is having a problem finding a running mate. Mr Buchanan will face opposition at the convention in California from Mr John Hagelin who is also a candidate of the Natural Law Party.

Supporters of Mr Ross Perot, who founded the Reform Party and ran in 1992 and 1996 but has decided not to stand this year, may vote for Mr Hagelin against Mr Buchanan who defected from the Republican Party last year accusing it of adopting Democratic policies.

Mr Buchanan says he is confident of securing the Reform Party nomination and thus qualifying for about $12 million in federal funding based on Mr Perot's votes in 1996.

Recent opinion polls show Mr Buchanan's support at only one per cent compared with seven per cent for Mr Ralph Nader, the Green Party candidate.

Reuters adds:

Mrs Hillary Clinton takes centre stage next Monday at the Democratic National Convention, playing a major role that dramatises how being first lady and running for office can be a blessing - and a bit of a curse.

She is scheduled to address the Democrats on the opening night of the four-day convention, the same evening her husband appears to pass the proverbial torch to Mr Gore.

Appearing as the nation's first lady and US Senate candidate is unprecedented, as was her decision to become the first president's wife ever to seek public office.

With Mrs Clinton lagging behind her opponent, the Republican Representative Mr Rick Lazio, in the latest poll supporters see the occasion as a unique chance for her to take her case to a broad audience.

But some observers caution that the glare of the spotlight could prove to be harsh. Standing on a podium in Los Angeles, surrounded by politicians from Washington, Mrs Clinton could remind voters of her status as an outsider in New York, they warn.

Israeli politicians welcomed reports yesterday that Mr Gore had chosen a Jewish senator, Mr Joseph Lieberman, as his running mate, saying it reflected the United States' maturity.

But an Israeli cabinet minister said he would not expect any major change in US-Israeli relations or in the Middle East peace process simply because a Jew was vice president.