Big changes in seats and constituency boundaries inevitable

ANALYSIS:Population surge and Government plan to cut TD numbers will drive major adjustments

SWEEPING CHANGES in constituency boundaries and the number of seats per constituency appear inevitable at the next election as a result of a larger than expected rise in the population and a decision of the Government to cut the number of TDs.

A surge in population in the midlands and suburban Dublin should result in those areas getting a greater proportion of Dáil seats, with inner-city areas and the western fringe bound to lose representation.

Following publication of the preliminary census figures yesterday, Minister for the Environment Phil Hogan announced the establishment of a new constituency commission which will be mandated to cut the number of TDs in the next Dáil by a minimum of six and a maximum of 13.

The Minister initially announced a maximum reduction of 14, but Labour TD Joanna Tuffy pointed out in the Dáil that the constitutional provision setting out a minimum of one TD for every 30,000 of population meant that 13 was the maximum reduction that could take place in the absence of a referendum to amend the Constitution.

The terms of reference also ask the commission to avoid breaching county boundaries as far as possible and ensure that each constituency is composed of contiguous areas. This will make it almost impossible to reduce the number of TDs by 13.

With the population rising to 4.58 million, the highest since 1851, the current national average of population per TD is 27,598. That is already at its highest level since the foundation of the State as the practice for most of the State’s history was to pitch the figure close to the lower limit of 20,000 per TD.

The new commission will have to set the limit as close as possible to 30,000 per TD to reduce the numbers in the Dáil in line with the Minister’s directive. That directive will not enable the Government to implement the Fine Gael manifesto pledge to reduce the number of TDs by 20, as that would breach the constitutional limit.

The last constituency commission in 2007 picked a middle way between the upper limit of 168 seats and the lower limit of 164. If it adopts the same approach this time around the number of Dáil seats will be reduced to about 157. There are currently 166 TDs in the Dáil.

Drawing constituency boundaries to cater for that number of TDs will involve wholesale changes either in constituency boundaries or the number of TDs in some existing constituencies.

The census results show that two of the current 43 constituencies already exceed the limit of 30,000 of population per TD. They are five-seat Laois- Offaly and three-seat Kildare South. Another four Leinster constituencies, Longford- Westmeath, Kildare North, Carlow-Kilkenny and Wexford are pushing close to the 30,000 limit.

With suburban Dublin growing, if not at quite the same rate, 54 per cent of the Irish population now lives in Leinster and that has prompted some planners to refer to “the Leinsterisation of Ireland”. More than half the Dáil seats are currently based in Leinster and that trend will be reinforced in the 32nd Dáil.

The only constituency in the State to suffer a drop in population is the three-seat Dublin North Central. Constituencies across Mayo, Sligo, Roscommon, Donegal, Kerry, Cavan and Monaghan showed a smaller population rise than average and those areas are bound to lose representation by comparison with the midlands and the east, where population increase has been greatest.

The commission will face considerable difficulty trying to avoid breaching county boundaries, although it should be able to get around that problem by adopting another of the guidelines – that each constituency shall be composed of contiguous areas.

One way out of the dilemma on county boundaries could have been the adoption of larger six- or even seven-seat constituencies, as was common in the early decades of the State’s history. However, the Minister has tied the hands of the commission by limiting it to three-, four- or five-seat constituencies. The commission is free to go for any mix of these and it may have to opt for some major surgery to get the overall numbers down to the required level.

The Minister will ask Chief Justice John Murray to nominate a judge to chair the commission. In line with past practice the other members of the commission will be the clerk of the Dáil, Kieran Coughlan, the clerk of the Seanad, Deirdre Lane, the Ombudsman, Emily O’Reilly, and Geraldine Tallon, secretary general of the Department of the Environment.

It will begin work on the basis of the preliminary census figures but will not come to a decision until after the final figures are published in a year’s time.

A report detailing the new constituencies will be published within three months of those final census figures.