The UUP leader is under the cosh but must never be underestimated, writes Gerry Moriarty.
The 2005 Westminster and local elections cranked into life yesterday with Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble opening his case for ensuring that the centre ground holds in Northern Ireland.
In his political life, David Trimble always seems to be facing uphill. In fact the 2005 Westminster and local elections kicked off so poorly for Trimble that the DUP's Peter Robinson was able to joke that he was hampered from canvassing because of the "queue of Ulster Unionists" outside his door waiting to switch to the DUP.
These elections in Northern Ireland could so squeeze the middle ground that after polling day on May 5th SDLP leader Mark Durkan and Trimble could have very little turf left on which to stand.
Politics here could be said to operate in accordance with Isaac Newton's formula: for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. If the DUP edges out Ulster Unionists in one constituency then Sinn Féin will damage the SDLP in another. Ian Paisley and Gerry Adams seem virtually certain to further stamp their political authority on the North when the votes are counted. But by how much is the key determinant as to whether centrist politics has a future here.
DUP canvassers in South Belfast are cheerfully handing out in their constituency pamphlets featuring a big photograph of former UUP leader Lord Molyneaux and outgoing Ulster Unionist MP the Rev Martin Smyth flanking Dr Paisley's candidate Jimmy Spratt.
At his press conference yesterday morning, Trimble tried to deflect attention from this issue. How could anyone be surprised by Molyneaux's and Smyth's anti-agreement views, he asked. Fair enough. But equally he didn't dare suggest that Molyneaux should be dumped as UUP patron, even though he is also supporting Jeffrey Donaldson against the UUP in Lagan Valley.
He knew there was little profit in branding Molyneaux and Smyth as traitors because it's generally counter-productive to attack party grandees. How Robinson and Ian Paisley must exult in his discomfiture. Expect similar drip-drip defections in the coming weeks.
Moreover, Ian Paisley is looking and sounding in great shape these days, sporting a new camelhair-style overcoat, and putting on weight again. On Monday he was outside Carrickfergus Castle, reminding us that King Billy landed there ahead of his encounter with King James at the Battle of the Boyne. He predicted the DUP could take each of the five Ulster Unionist seats in the Westminster elections. That's just about possible but it's also just about possible that the UUP could hold four of those five seats, which in the current political climate would be quite an achievement for Trimble.
Roy Beggs, facing the DUP's Sammy Wilson in East Antrim, would appear the most vulnerable. But David Burnside against the Rev Willie McCrea in South Antrim, Michael McGimpsey against Jimmy Spratt in South Belfast, Lady (Sylvia) Hermon against Peter Weir in North Down, and even Trimble himself against David Simpson in Upper Bann all have a chance - some better than others - of taking or holding seats.To compete, Trimble must rally moderate unionists, some of whom are so apathetic they seem beyond motivation. He must also hammer home his central message, that a rout by both the DUP and Sinn Féin will leave Northern Ireland a much colder place for everyone.
It will be a war to the political death between the UUP and DUP in each of the five constituencies. But it is to Trimble's credit, and a reflection of his obstinate, awkward character, that he is prepared to go down fighting. He is under the cosh, but must never be underestimated.