Arafat moves away from declaration of statehood for Palestine in May

Under pressure from the United States, the EU and moderate Arab states such as Egypt, the president of the Palestinian Authority…

Under pressure from the United States, the EU and moderate Arab states such as Egypt, the president of the Palestinian Authority, Mr Yasser Arafat, appears to be slowly backing away from his earlier firm intention unilaterally to declare Palestinian statehood on May 4th.

Until recently Mr Arafat and many of his advisers were adamant that May 4th would not pass without the formal establishment of the independent state of Palestine. Under the original Oslo peace accord timetable, Israel and the Palestinians were to have reached a full and final peace treaty by that date.

Because that timetable has long since become irrelevant, and because peace talks between the two sides are again stalled, Mr Arafat was talking of announcing statehood in those areas of the West Bank and Gaza he now fully controls, in the hope of subsequently extending control in the future to other still-occupied territory.

"We will declare our independent state on May 4th, with Jerusalem as its capital," he promised at a rally in Nablus last November, for example, "whether they [the Israelis] like it or not."

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Now, however, warnings from the US, EU and Arab leaders such as Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak appear to be changing Mr Arafat's mind. In Davos, Switzerland, on Monday, at a meeting of world political and business leaders, he said that the issue was "still under discussion at all Palestinian levels".

Visiting the US this week, Mr Arafat is certain to hear from President Clinton that the US would not endorse a unilateral declaration of statehood and that the move would be counterproductive for the Palestinians.

Mr Clinton, who effectively guaranteed eventual Palestinian statehood by legitimising Mr Arafat's regime on a visit to Gaza in December, will doubtless urge him to comply with the fundamental basis of the peace process that all issues of dispute between Israel and the Palestinians be resolved through negotiation.

Israel's Prime Minister, Mr Benjamin Netanyahu, striving to secure re-election on May 17th, just a fortnight after the critical date, has said he might respond to a unilateral declaration by annexing parts of the West Bank.

Mr Netanyahu has already frozen the Wye Plantation land-for-peace deal. The formal announcement by Mr Arafat of statehood, so soon before the Israeli elections, would guarantee a complete breakdown of Israeli-Palestinian dialogue and would dramatically boost Mr Netanyahu's re-election prospects, since he would be able to portray Mr Arafat as an unreliable peace partner.

Mr Netanyahu is busy trying to convince international public opinion that it is Mr Arafat, and not his government, which has flouted the Wye deal.

This week he released reports accusing the Palestinian leader of freeing dangerous Islamic militants from jail. His main political rivals, Labour's Mr Ehud Barak and the centrist leader, Mr Yitzhak Mordechai, by contrast, indicate readiness to restart peace efforts and are publicly reconciled to the notion of eventual Palestinian statehood.

Given this constellation of Israeli political forces, Mr Arafat would hardly want to do anything to help pave the way for Mr Netanyahu's re-election.

Mr Arafat's main fear in deferring statehood is of a backlash among his disappointed people, and violent opposition from Hamas and other militants.

Relations between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas are already under strain, as Mr Arafat strives to thwart suicide attacks on Israel, and amid the arrests of some 20 Hamas supporters this week following the killing of a Palestinian security officer and the running over of an eight-year-old girl in a clash blamed on Hamas in Gaza on Monday.