Air strikes seen as high-risk strategy

Nato air strikes against Serbia will inevitably lead to the sending of troops there too, according to some military analysts.

Nato air strikes against Serbia will inevitably lead to the sending of troops there too, according to some military analysts.

If the West hopes to enforce a peace settlement in the Serb-ruled province, where nearly 1,000 have died and 300,000 have been made refugees by a bloody campaign against the secessionists, a ground presence is essential, the analysts say.

"As soon as you drop the first bomb, you are committed to a process which inevitably leads to a military presence in Kosovo," said Dr Jonathan Eyal of the Royal United Services Institute in London. "Air strikes as such, unless followed by a major political push and military presence on the ground, cannot achieve anything," he added.

Dr Domitilla Sagramoso of the Centre for Defence Studies at King's College, London agreed. "Ground troops are part of the whole strategy of a political settlement: it is hard to see how it could be imposed without such forces," she said.

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The United States, which has virtually ruled out sending US ground troops to Kosovo, will have to change position, according to Mr Eyal. France, which said on Thursday it would be prepared to send troops to the province, and Britain, which is also believed to be planning for such an event, would never risk their soldiers' lives without US involvement.

The problem is that even if President Milosevic agrees to withdraw his forces and enter into talks with representatives of the Albanian majority, he cannot be trusted to keep any agreement, said Mr Paul Beaver of the authoritative defence journal Jane's.

"Bombing the politicians to the negotiating table worked before in Bosnia. There is a chance it might work this time."

Even if ground troops were dispatched, a peace deal for Kosovo could still come unstuck because the Albanians will not gain the independence they seek, the analysts warned.

"There is a worrying mismatch between the policy of those carrying out the air strikes and the ethnic Albanians," said Col Terence Taylor of the International Institute for Stategic Studies. "They are bombing for humanitarian reasons, to get the refugees back home, but this does not meet the objectives of the side battling against Serbian security forces," he observed.

Among the possible threats are that NATO could suffer reprisals - the 30,000 troops deployed in Bosnia could be targeted - or that Mr Milosevic could try to disrupt the peace settlement in Bosnia.