Low-key campaigns ill-suited to securing strong Yes vote

In less than two week's time we are being asked to vote Yes to the Amsterdam Treaty and the Belfast Agreement. In both cases a strong positive vote is essential we are being told. But the campaigns, so far, could, at best, be described as low-key.

The electoral strategy for the agreement is summed up by the Fianna Fail posters, the only posters I've seen, which ask us to Vote Yes For Peace. For the Amsterdam Treaty it seems to be Vote Yes Because it's a Good Thing.

That really isn't good enough.

What is needed are campaigns that do two jobs.

Firstly, give us the information to allow us to make up our minds to vote Yes.

Secondly, give us good reasons to make the effort to get out and vote even if it is raining.

By now most of us have received a copy of the agreement. While the language used is reasonably straightforward by the standards of this sort of document, it is by no means an easy read. This is a 35-page document that has implications across so many areas that it would be impossible to explain in complete clarity every aspect of its influence. Some of the passages do suffer from being impenetrably legal in tone. For example, under the section dealing with article three of the constitution we have this paragraph: "If a declaration under this section is made, this subsection and subsection 3, other than the amendment of this Constitution effected thereby, and subsection 5 of this section shall be omitted from every official text of this Constitution published thereafter, but notwithstanding such omission this section shall continue to have force of law."

I'm lucky, I've spent more than 20 years reading this sort of specialised language. The vast majority of the population haven't had this sort of thing inflicted on them on a daily basis. So we need a hand understanding the intricacies of what has been agreed. The campaigns have ignored this and gone for handy broad statements extolling the peace dividend and little else.

This is worrying because the Irish people are not a people who trust their politicians. We won't just get up and slavishly vote the way the political parties tell us to. As a nation we tend to listen to what someone is saying to us and then go away and wonder what they were getting at. We assume a hidden agenda and the campaigns so far have ignored our innately suspicious nature.

Take the decision to run both referendums on the same day. It was a practical move designed to save us the expense of running two separate polls. It saves us citizens the hassle of voting on two different days. But I've heard people wonder whether this is an example of the Government trying to pull a fast one. By putting both referendums on the same day, the theory goes, the powers that be are banking on people voting Yes to the Belfast Agreement and by reflex sticking an X in the Yes box for the Amsterdam Treaty.

IN the absence of clear, well-argued and accessible information, we are left with a combination of rumour, hearsay and speculation. Until the political parties start making sense of the proposals in front of us we will continue to wonder why they don't want to explain these things to us. The assumptions we will make will not be charitable.

Directly following the announcement of the agreement each of the participants told us the Yes campaigns would be fought like general elections. That is precisely how this should have been fought but the level of activity normally associated with a general election hasn't happened. That is a dangerous signal. It tells the voters these referendums will be carried. That the Yes vote will appear and so they don't have to bother voting if it's too awkward.

Every opinion poll so far has shown people are likely to vote Yes. But a complacent assumption that a positive result is inevitable is the only way these referendums will be defeated. Those that are intending to vote No will vote. Partially because those voting against these treaties are doing so because they are seriously worried and partially because they know that to have any chance of winning they all must vote.

That is the kind of motivation we have to create in those who support the agreement and the Amsterdam Treaty. By May 22nd, Yes voters must be left in no doubt that every one of their votes is essential. This is doubly true for the agreement. Even if the Amsterdam Treaty just scrapes through, it will be counted as passed. If the agreement doesn't win handsomely it will allow those opposed to it too much room to challenge its validity.

I believe that the kind of measures I've outlined should happen but there are no signs, so far, that they will happen. What is much more probable is that the disinformation and counter arguments will multiply as the campaigns against the referendums get going. Voters hoping to get a clear steer on what is going on will not be able to plonk themselves in front of the television and get it delivered to them. Instead, we are going to have to take our democratic responsibility seriously. We will have to actively look for the answers to our questions. And we will have to motivate ourselves to get to the polling stations and vote. Ultimately these referendums will be more a measure of how mature democracy in Ireland has become and how earnest we really are about the political and economic future of our country.