THE old slogan of the Greens, "Think globally, act locally" has not caught on in some political circles in Northern Ireland. The loyalists who took part in the Harryville church protests, for example, were apparently impervious to the damage their actions were doing to the image of the unionist and loyalist community in general.

Critics of the republican movement, meanwhile, say it is equally uncaring about the impact of its actions in the world's media and on the international political stage: they say that, like some of the other forces on the Northern scene, it both "thinks locally and acts locally".

The shooting of a policewoman on a busy street in Derry this week may have been a textbook example of how to win bad publicity and international odium, but how it went down locally is a matter of dispute.

SDLP and independent sources say it had a very negative impact in Derry, with people from nationalist areas expressing particular distaste. SDLP canvassers will be reminding voters on the doorsteps that Sinn Fein is the political associate of the organisation responsible for sabotaging the Grand National as well as the wounding of RUC officer, Ms Alice Collins.

Sinn Fein sources call this a cheap election stunt on the part of the SDLP, pointing out that they have not seen any line up of bishops and prime ministers to condemn the sectarian murder of Belfastman, Mr John Slane, and the attempted murder of a Catholic in north Belfast this week.

Independent observers say that Aintree and the Derry shooting would have a significant impact on Sinn Fein's electoral performance only if voting took place within the next week or so.

The memory of 1690 and 1916 is kept alive but the politics of the last atrocity have a very short shelf life.

Observers describe the Sinn Fein support base as "bullet proof" - they say a sex scandal involving one of Sinn Fein's leaders would lose the party far more votes than IRA actions. SF voters see condemnation from an international establishment as selective and always disposed to give loyalist paramilitaries the benefit of the doubt.

Wavering SDLP supporters or new voters deciding how to align themselves might pull back from backing Sinn Fein because of what the IRA is doing except that, as night follows day, we are apparently doomed to have a loyalist counter atrocity which may well help Sinn Fein.

It was an uncanny coincidence that the Derry shooting took place only minutes before an IRA cease fire was rumoured to be about to come into effect. Despite being dismissed as rubbish by usually reliable sources, the ceasefire rumour achieved remarkably wide circulation.

Nationalist sources in the peace process claimed it was a well orchestrated exercise in black propaganda and that the spurious ceasefire story was fed to journalists to put the republican movement on the defensive.

If the IRA is sufficiently politically aware to ease off for the period of the elections, then observers - some unionists among them - say there is a "high possibility" Sinn Fein could win two, if not three, Westminster seats.

Mr Gerry Adams remains a strong contender to retake the seat from Dr Joe Hendron in West Belfast; Mr Martin McGuinness is said to be getting a good reception in Mid Ulster, although it would be foolish to dismiss the chances of the SDLP's Mr Denis Haughey and the Rev William McCrea of the DUP.

Mr Pat Doherty has reportedly been spending a lot of time in West Tyrone, where the withdrawal of the DUP candidate means it is now a three cornered fight between Sinn Fein, Mr Joe Byrne of the SDLP, and the UUP's Mr Willie Thompson.

In Dublin and London and, more discreetly, in Washington, senior politicians are taking a step back from Sinn Fein. One diplomatic observer said the Provisionals were reminiscent of the Sandinistas, who had an unfortunate tendency to visit Moscow every time there was an important debate on Nicaragua in the US Congress.

"They would want to be very careful: they are going to be totally marginalised."