Harney holds the key to FG hopes

Politics is all about luck and timing

Politics is all about luck and timing. And John Bruton's prospects of replacing Bertie Ahern as Taoiseach may depend on the early withdrawal of the Progressive Democrats from this Coalition Government.

For that to happen, a new political scandal will have to engulf Fianna Fail. And the role of Mr Ahern in responding to the affair, or in failing to forewarn his Government partners, must leave Mary Harney with no option but to "walk".

Des O'Malley put it bluntly in the Dail last week: Fianna Fail was on its last chance. If its act wasn't cleaned up, the Progressive Democrats would clear off.

The Moriarty and Flood tribunals, with their revelations of the seamy underside of political and business life in the late 1980s and early 1990s, have kept the political pot on the boil since the turn of the year. For the first time since the signing of the Belfast Agreement, Mr Ahern has come under intense and sustained political pressure. And the opposition parties have stamped all over him.

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But Fine Gael knows that the tide may turn. The sight of seven Rainbow ministerial Mercedes entering Dublin Castle during the McCracken tribunal to explain details of party funding was enough to take the pressure off Fianna Fail in 1997. If rumoured shady dealings by Fine Gael elected representatives were to surface in the Flood or Moriarty proceedings, the muck would spread and political advantage would be lost.

That's why the party needs an early election. John Bruton posed the question about the Haughey years: "Surely senior Fianna Failers should have known?" He has been hammering Mr Ahern for his long-term support for Charles Haughey and for his reluctance to take action against Ray Burke or Padraig Flynn. The Taoiseach's failure to ask the "hard question" has become something of a political mantra as Mr Bruton chips away at Mr Ahern's authority and public standing.

Fine Gael blood was up at the ardfheis. Election fever was in the air and the party leadership cranked up expectations. Fianna Fail was in tatters and the Coalition Government could not last, Mr Bruton told delegates, as he urged them to election readiness. In the over-heated conference rooms, the glorious spring day went largely unnoticed as delegates and party spokesmen designed huge spending budgets to mark the growth of the Celtic Tiger.

Ivan Yates casually earmarked £1.3 billion for public transport, apart altogether from the needs of the roads system. Alan Dukes talked about building new towns and cities as satellites to Dublin and cleaning up the environment. Alan Shatter promised extra resources and better management for the health services. Richard Bruton would revamp education and provide improved primary and adult services. More public and private housing would be built under Brian Hayes. More money would be devoted to fisheries development. And the needs of the farming community were especially close to Fine Gael's heart.

The party leader added to the wish-list. In his televised address, Mr Bruton promised to increase mortgage tax relief, based on the number of persons in the home. And an extra £316 million a year was earmarked for child benefit allowances for toddlers under five years - to be offset against creche costs if parents so wished.

All this from a party fewer than two years out of government. No wonder Michael Noonan, the party's finance spokesman and guardian of orthodox economics, was hedging his bets. Last December, he had rounded on Charlie McCreevy for spendthrift, inflationary-generating, budgetary policies. And now Fine Gael was losing the run of itself in opposition.

The Limerick man took a leaf from a recent NESC report and envisaged an annual 6 per cent growth rate for the next decade. With that template to hand, he ignored specific policies and asked soft questions. How much could we afford to pay ourselves? What tax reductions would suit the State? How much should we invest in health and education? Should we run budgetary surpluses for the next 10 years and how big should they be? There wasn't much steel there to buttress Mr Bruton's vision of a new patriotism. But Mr Noonan retained a central Rainbow tenet from the last election: tax relief would be primarily geared to take the low-paid out of the tax net and to help those on low and middle incomes. That, he said, was the way to return the unemployed to work.

Dealing with unemployment was also high on Mr Bruton's agenda. But not as high as childcare and family values. The carefully choreographed ardfheis had the flawed leadership of Bertie Ahern as its primary target. In that context, television brought us John and Finola Bruton's triumphant procession through the aisles of the ardfheis, to where they joined their four children. The image of a concerned and dutiful parent was bolstered in a presidential address that spoke of a new set of public values and of renewing the contract between politicians and the Irish people.

The scandals of the late 1980s had happened, he said, because many people, many highly-educated professional people, as well as businessmen and politicians, let them happen. The culture, the values and the principles that had allowed people to turn blind eyes to such scandalous behaviour must be replaced. And a new patriotism was the way forward.

Mr Bruton touched a chord. It wasn't a razzmatazz speech. But judging by the comments of delegates later, he got them going.

Calling for a general election, however, is very different from getting one. For that to happen, Fianna Fail will have to be caught in an erupting political scandal and the Progressive Democrats will have to walk. If that double-whammy doesn't occur, Fine Gael will have to settle for local and European elections.