Clare have the backbone to go forward and win

SCEPTICS HAVE been taken aback by the levels of interest in tomorrow's Guinness Munster final at Pairc Ui Chaoimh between Clare and Tipperary. In the words of one local, "I've never seen such interest in Cork in a Munster final between two outside teams".

Whereas it remains to be seen what effect automatic progress to ,the All- Ireland series has on the quality of the match and the knockout edge that so distinguished last year's final and replay, there are a couple of reasons why interest remains so high.

Firstly, it's going to be hard for teams to calculate and give effect to a formula whereby it will benefit them to lose a provincial final. This doesn't have so much to do with the prospect of avoiding Galway in an All- Ireland quarter-final, as with the simple nature of momentum. Except in very specific circumstances, defeat sets back a team, sometimes fatally.

Secondly, counties will rarely be so focused on the All-Ireland that they can be indifferent to winning a provincial title, particularly in Munster. It's only two years since Ger Loughnane told the world, after the fabled defeat of Limerick in Thurles, that the Munster title had always been a higher ambition in the county than the All-Ireland.

Leaving aside the trappings of tomorrow's event, the match itself is a sufficiently intriguing prospect that it hardly requires the added excitement of enforcing competitive redundancy on one team at the full-time whistle.

Tipperary and Clare have followed different trajectories to tomorrow's final. Clare's late fade-out in the League included a one-point defeat by Tipperary who travelled the same journey from a different direction and ended up in the NHL quarter-finals as Clare dropped to Division Two.

Even allowing for the revamped League, the teams' prospects have to be more securely based on championship outings to date, although the League campaign did establish that Tipp's momentum is stronger than Clare's.

The essential feature of Tipperary's big win over Limerick was that they survived their rocky period in the opening 20 minutes and turned their own ascendancy into scores, and plenty of them.

Clare's win over Cork was also impressive and highlighted the difference Tipp can expect to find between them and Limerick. For a change, Clare's victory was very much forward-driven. Astute second-half changes in the attack assembled a more productive unit and further back, the supply of ball improved greatly.

Sparrow O'Loughlin's recent conversion to a full-forward role has been effective and surprising only in an inter-county context as his club career has always been on the edge of the square. Named in the corner for tomorrow, he is a likely switch with Barry Murphy if scores dry up for Clare.

O'Loughlin's second half against Cork was very significant in deciding the outcome and he looked a more creative player than the self-absorbed score-taker of old.

It will have been encouraging for Ger Loughnane and company that the team functioned so well, despite a low-key performance from Jamesie O'Connor who had, until the Cork match, been the principal cutting edge up front. There were also positive signs that PJ O'Connell has rediscovered something of the form that distinguished his contribution to the great events of 1995.

There was enough evidence in the win over Cork that Clare's forwards will not squander anything like the number of chances that came Limerick's way, but went no further.

Centre field was an improvement as Ollie Baker's form picked up and late replacement Colin Lynch, who keeps his place today, had a fine afternoon beside him.

Tipperary's display in the sector was uneven with Limerick's Mike Houlihan playing well and over-shadowing John Leahy until the fateful 22nd- minute goal, created by his solo surge, which ignited Leahy and established some excellent service to his forwards.

In some ways, the question marks that hovered over those forwards remain. During Limerick's unexploited dominant phase, Tipp's attack was kept under wraps and it took exceptional economy to keep the team afloat as Limerick created a succession of chances.

That strike rate is a clear threat to Clare whose defence, while improving, hasn't reclaimed the pinnacle of two years ago. Cork's light and inexperienced attack managed 19 points, only four from placed balls, which would usually be a match-winning total.

Whereas their second-half tightening of the screw was reassuring, there were times when Clare looked insecure at the back, particularly on the left flank.

At their most troubled, Clare's defenders found the fast ball being deployed by and for Seanie McGrath, in particular, and his colleagues too hot to handle - to the extent that Cork went in at half-time believing they could win the match.

One of the reasons that Cork ultimately failed was an insufficiency of heft down the middle of the attack. Alan Browne needed cloning to maintain the threat at full forward and also try and win possession on the 40, particularly when Sean McMahon got motoring in the second half.

In that respect, a heavy burden rests on Declan Ryan and Michael Cleary, but especially Ryan whose resurgent form over the past year or so dipped a little in the opening exchanges in Thurles, but had well returned as the afternoon progressed.

That burden of responsibility grows with the knowledge that Clare possess the most formidable defensive spine in contemporary hurling. After an unhappy few months, Brian Lohan's implacable nature has returned in time for the championship.

In addition to attending to his own man, the full back generates confidence and security to the rest of the defence with the quality of his tidying-up and clearing. In front of him, McMahon was also excellent against Cork, also after an occasionally trying League.

This is a very tight match to call. As all previewing is based on hypothesis, it is hypothesised here that had Clare dominated to the extent that, Limerick managed in the semi-final, they would have taken more scores, that their defence wouldn't have been dealing with forwards whose confidence was rising steadily and that Tipp's centre field wouldn't have become airborne.

There's no guarantee that this is how it will happen tomorrow, but the conclusion here is that Clare will still win.