Bush out ahead in two-man race

The race to nominate a Republican Party candidate has taken a few twists and turns thus far, surprising pundits. For example, former governor Lamar Alexander and Elizabeth Dole were expected to be serious contenders. Both had high profiles and respect within the party, both were expected to be formidable fund-raisers. Confounding those expectations, both dropped out of the race, citing an inability to raise money to oppose front-runner George W. Bush.

Of the six Republican candidates still fighting for the nomination, there is one real surprise: John McCain. A senator from Arizona, McCain could have been voted by his Senate colleagues "Least Likely to Succeed" little more than a year ago. Soft spoken at times, highly intelligent, he is a man who is not the recipient of much deep affection by his colleagues, who say he can be aloof, unfriendly, even arrogant.

In the crowded field it would have been anyone's guess how McCain could garner publicity for his fledgling effort.

And then came the US involvement in Kosovo beginning last March. Perhaps more than anyone on the US political scene, McCain had the credentials to discuss the war. A combat veteran of the Vietnam War, he had been a prisoner of war in North Vietnam for over five years. During that time he was tortured. In a time where heroes are scarce and war heroes even scarcer, McCain was the genuine article.

And so he began saturation appearances on television talk shows. When three US servicemen were taken prisoner inside Serbia, McCain spoke with dignity and understanding about what they were probably going through, and his reasoned voice and demeanour helped to propel him into the public view.

His attitude toward journalists covering the campaign was open, forthright, comfortable. Instead of being strictly guarded by aides, McCain has invited reporters into his home in Arizona, giving them tours, and even letting them wander around unaccompanied. That conduct soon made McCain a darling of the press.

Soon it became clear that McCain was the leading challenger to Bush.

The son of the former president, Bush has been one of the most formidable fundraisers in American politics. As Governor of Texas, Bush has promoted a fairly typical Republican Party middle of the road agenda, promising to push for tax cuts, but steering away from the so-called volatile wedge issues of abortion and gay rights.

Bush has sought to expand the base of the Republican Party away from its extreme conservatism of recent years, toward what he calls "compassionate conservatism", a philosophy that allows for some social safety nets for the poor.

Bush has not abandoned his conservative background, or his strict law and order posture. Since he became Governor, Texas has executed 111 men and one woman, more than any other state. (Virginia is second, and Florida, where Bush's brother Jeb is governor, is third in executions.)

Although he had approved 58 executions before Karla Faye Tucker's, her case in 1998 "put a face" on the death penalty for him, Bush wrote in his autobiography, A Charge to Keep. Bush refused to spare Tucker's life, gaining strength with voters who saw him as "tough". Polls show that two out of three Americans support the death penalty.

Still, Bush's nomination is not assured, given his less than stellar performance in debates and new questions about his intellectual capacity. A few days ago, McCain's reputation was tarnished when a Boston newspaper revealed he had sought favours from a federal regulatory agency for a large campaign contributor.

Should either man stumble, or have their campaigns collapse, multi-millionaire and magazine publisher Steve Forbes or Senator Orrin Hatch seem willing to assume front-runner status. Anti-abortion activist Gary Bauer and maverick Alan Keyes are not seen as serious candidates.

So while no one is betting against Bush at this juncture, there is very much a wait-and-see attitude until the Iowa caucuses on January 24th, and the New Hampshire primary on February 1st. Consensus is that the Republicans and Democrats will effectively have chosen their nominees by March 7th, the day after the largest number of primaries, especially those in the large states of New York and California.

The presidential election itself may not be until November, but in American politics, that is a lifetime.