THERE is, it appears, little immediate prospect of a renewed IRA ceasefire in the wake of Mr Blair's speech in Belfast last week. The peace process has certainly gained some fresh momentum. But the old" suspicions that have blocked the way to a renewed IRA ceasefire have Still to be removed.

That said, the sands are shifting a little. The prime minister has reopened contact between Sinn Fein and British government officials. And contact has been reestablished between Sinn Fein and top civil servants in Dublin.

But such is the negative reaction from republicans to the Blair speech that one must worry for the relationship between "New Labour" and "New Sinn Fein".

David Trimble, meanwhile, must be well pleased. The Ulster Unionist Party leader clearly succeeded in impressing on Mr Blair, before the speech, the importance of reassuring the majority community in Northern Ireland.

It is possible that Mr Blair did not need much impressing. His speech was laced, one might almost say drenched, with commitments to maintain the union as long as it was the wish of the majority in the North. It is understood the content of the speech was made known to the UUP at the highest level in advance.

The Prime Minister said he did not expect to see Northern Ireland leaving the United Kingdom within the lifetime of the youngest person in the hall. As one senior republican pointed out, this precludes Irish "unity before 2050."

Sinn Fein has been taking the long view and a senior party figure has told The Irish Times that an interim settlement leading eventually to a united Ireland was acceptable but that Irish unity would have to come in 10 or 15 years. By that stage, the youngest person listening to Tony Blair's speech would be just about getting the front door key.

As the political interchange continues, one senses the big battalions moving into place. The British electorate has spoken and the political mould there is set for perhaps another 10 years.

In the North, nationalists are sensing their power at the polls. Tomorrow's local elections will no doubt see them flexing electoral muscles still further. Most observers also expect Sinn Fein to claim another triumph.

So, like it or not, we are stuck with New Labour and New Sinn Fein for the foreseeable future. But judging from the reaction to Mr Blair's speech there is a substantial gap to be bridged. Indeed, a senior republican thought Mr Blair's oration was the most unionist speech since Margaret Thatcher.

All of this appears to be focusing republican minds ever more closely on the election in the Republic. There is a sense in which Dublin, more than London, the unionists, or even Sinn Fein itself, is the linchpin of the peace process.

Nationalist sources in the peace process said that if Mr Bertie Ahern replaced Mr John Bruton as Taoiseach, then an IRA ceasefire was a strong possibility. Last week's issue of the Sinn Fein weekly, An Phoblacht, made it clear that republicans wanted to see a change at the top in Dublin. The main feature article on the election began by calling Mr Bruton a "national disaster" and the piece was illustrated by a smiling photograph of Mr Ahern and the Sinn Fein president, Mr Gerry Adams.

People with long memories wills recall that Sinn Fein did not always prosper at the hands of Fianna Fail but as they say in political circles, "That was then, this is now".

Republicans were unconvinced by the argument that Mr Blair was obliged to engage in some unionist rhetoric to allay fears that might be aroused as he opened the door to contacts with the political associates of an organisation dedicated to killing Crown forces.

Everybody had problems, they responded. "We've got backbenchers as well." They pointed out that in the Framework Documents Britain gave a commitment not to prejudice the freedom of the people of Northern Ireland in determining its future constitutional status and here was Mr Blair doing a stand up promo for the union. "Tony Blair didn't speak as a neutral."

The refusal of Westminster facilities to the two Sinn Fein MPs had also generated disillusionment. Republicans said they could not see why the Labour government, with its secure majority, allowed this to happen. It may be that republicans do not fully appreciate the state of political opinion in Britain in the wake of all the traffic and rail disruptions, not to mention Canary Wharf and other IRA actions.

On Thursday the Northern Ireland Secretary, Dr Mo Mowlam, travels to the US and next day she is to meet the National Security Adviser, Mr Samuel "Sandy" Berger.

Meanwhile, Mr Martin McGuinness is to meet British officials at Stormont tomorrow morning. Judging from his comments in the wake of the Blair speech, Mr McGuinness will come out of his corner fighting.

The British officials should not be surprised if he points out that the only reference by Mr Blair to the need for constitutional change was with regard to Articles 2 and 3 of the Republic's Constitution.

Senior republicans said they saw positive elements in the current situation. Mr Blair seemed to placing less emphasis on the decommissioning issue than his predecessor had done. He had also made favourable reference to the Joint Framework Document, although he had taken the good out of that, from a republican viewpoint, when he said no cross border arrangements would be negotiated if they were threatening to unionists. But a leading republican confessed that Mr Blair remained an "enigma".