Underlying jobless figure up for first time in two years

The number of people on the Live Register increased in May for the first time in over two years, according to seasonally adjusted figures provided by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

The figures reveal that the underlying trend is up by 2,400 to 201,700. The last time there was an increase was in March 1997, when the number went up by 1,500.

On the unadjusted figures, there are now 193,325 people, a fall of 3,527 during the month and the lowest figure since September 1983.

Because of increased employment in tourism and other summer jobs, the Live Register total normally falls significantly during May. But the decline last month was much smaller, leading to a rise in the seasonally adjusted total.

The underlying monthly increase was 1,300 for males and 1,100 for females, giving an overall unemployment rate of 6.7 per cent. A CSO spokesman said that although past trends indicated there should be a decrease of about 6,000 in May, it was difficult to comment on a single month's figures. The seasonally adjusted increase may merely represent a "blip", he said. But the Minister for Social, Community and Family Affairs, Mr Ahern, concentrating on the unadjusted totals, welcomed the figures. "The drop in the Live Register below 200,000 last month for the first time in 16 years was very significant, and the figures published today are evidence that the downward trend is continuing," he said.

He said that the increase in the seasonally adjusted figure had occurred because it was calculated on a shorter month, there being 28 days between the last Friday in April and the last Friday in May, compared to 35 days between the last Friday in March and the last Friday in April. But the CSO spokesman said that although the calculation was based on a shorter month, this factor would not have made a significant difference to the figures.

The Irish National Organisation of the Unemployed (INOU) also disputed the Minister's claim. By attempting to blame the increase on the five-week month, the Minister "has displayed a complete lack of understanding of the nature of the seasonally adjusted figures," a statement by the organisation said.

Expressing "alarm" at the increase in the seasonally adjusted figures, the INOU said: "The rise highlights the dangers of becoming complacent about Ireland's economic boom." The recently published National Anti-Poverty Strategy targets stressed the importance of falling unemployment in combating poverty, it said.

"This is a historic opportunity to ensure that everybody can work," the INOU statement added. " We must be vigilant and act immediately on the changing circumstances that could wreck the chances for people who are still signing on the Live Register."