Perhaps it's time for a new way of estimating dominance of the airwaves

MEDIA & MARKETING:Some experts believe research methodology for radio listenership is not fit for purpose

SUNDAY MORNING radio used to be for religious reflections and easy- listening tunes. Now it’s more like a boxing ring with some of the biggest personalities on Irish radio fighting for listeners.

Last April, Eamon Dunphy returned to Newstalk to compete with Marian Finucane on RTÉ Radio 1 and Sam Smyth on Today FM. In response, Smyth’s starting time slot was moved back half an hour to 11am, so now all three Sunday review shows kick off at the same time. Despite the changes, Finucane is still the top draw.

The latest JNLR/Ipsos MRBI audience ratings, covering January to December 2010, estimate Finucane’s average quarter hour (AQH) listenership at 283,000, an increase of 19,000 listeners on 2009.

The bedrock of Finucane’s audience is Dubliners aged over 55. According to David Hayes, managing director of ad agency Mediaedge:CIA: “Despite the ageing demographic of her audience, Finucane is pulling in a serious number of listeners, especially when you consider how busy people are at weekends these days. Dublin audiences are difficult to reach for advertisers, especially the ABC1 D4 audience that Finucane attracts.”

Paul Moran of media buyer Mediaworks concurs. “Although some commentators will highlight the fact that the RTÉ Radio 1 audience has an older age bias, this does not deflect from the fact that Marian Finucane is still the most popular Sunday radio presenter by a significant margin.

“It is also worth noting that adults over the age of 45 have higher disposable incomes than younger age groups.”

Smyth’s AQH audience is 68,000. His listeners are younger than Finucane’s and largely live outside Dublin. Dunphy’s chat show on Newstalk has an AQH of 21,000. Across the two hours of his show, Dunphy reaches 51,000 adults, up from 40,000 in the same time slot in 2009.

“On Sunday mornings, Newstalk and Today FM do very well because they pull in a 25-44- year-old audience. Sam Smyth’s listeners are mainly aged between 25-44, while Dunphy’s listeners are more 35-54,” Hayes says.

“I don’t know why Smyth’s listeners are younger than Dunphy’s but maybe it’s because Today FM has a younger listenership generally than Newstalk. People tend to tune into the same station no matter when they are listening.”

Conor White, head of radio at ad agency Mindshare, says it will take time for Dunphy to increase his show’s audience. “We are seeing growth in the show’s figures and he is bringing new listeners to radio on Sunday morning.

“Having Bobby Kerr presenting the business show beforehand is also a step in the right direction.”

Preceding the Sunday review shows, Newstalk and Today FM go head to head with business shows. Today FM’s Sunday Business Show has an AQH of 52,000, up from 50,000 in 2009.

All these audience figures are estimates based on sample polling; some experts believe the research methodology is not fit for purpose.

Danielle Donnelly of ad agency group Magna Global observes: “The JNLR uses the paper and pen method to capture ‘claimed to’ listenership data. The radio market in Ireland is worth an estimated €100 million.

“How accurate can the JNLR survey be when it is completed by a respondent on their doorstep? Should an industry worth €100 million in advertising revenue not invest in research tools with more sophistication?

“The questions in the survey largely ignore anything to do with the digital revolution which has happened in recent years and has changed the landscape of media forever,” Donnelly adds.

“Every traditional media is under pressure from digital except a formidable radio listenership. ‘Irish people love radio’ – how many times have we heard this and repeated it without really questioning it? The iPod and iPhone have had a massive impact on how we consume media but they seem to have had zero impact on radio listenership data in Ireland.”

As an alternative to the JNLR methodology, Moran favours the “Radiocontrol Wristwatch2” method in place in Switzerland where survey respondents wear a watch that picks up what radio station they are listening.

Hayes agrees that radio research methods could be improved. “Showing people a card with every quarter hour printed on it with the names of all the different radio stations, then asking them to remember what quarter hour of programming they listened to yesterday, is basically a memory test. As a result, established stations tend to do better.”