Cantillon: Oil prices grease wheels of Irish growth

There was a real whiff of nervousness and fear in the oil market early Monday, as the price of a barrel of Brent crude dropped towards levels last seen in 2008. Prices bounced strongly back later, but the general trend in oil prices in recent months has been only one way: downwards. Remember that as recently as October prices were over $50 a barrel.

Lower oil prices are one of the reasons why Ireland has the most unusual coincidence of growth of 7 per cent and no inflation. In fact, the most recent figures for November showed consumer prices were 0.2 per cent lower than a year ago, with a monthly fall in November largely attributable to falling energy costs.

As an oil importer, lower oil prices are clearly a boost to Ireland, cutting costs for consumers and businesses. Along with low interest rates, it is part of a global picture helping growth here while still keeping inflationary forces low.

The downside is that falling oil prices add to fears of a bout of deflation across Europe – which could have a serious long-term impact on growth – but for the moment the ECB is confident its policy of lower interest rates and quantitative easing is bearing fruit.

Oil prices are notoriously volatile and it remains to be seen if the current low levels can be maintained. Iranian production is due to add to the glut on the market next year – when an embargo on its production ends – and fears remain about the extent of growth in both developed and emerging markets.

Unless OPEC, whose December meeting ended in a chaotic lifting of production quotas, can get its act back together, there is nothing to suggest a sustained upward movement in prices is on horizon. For the moment the extraordinary combination for Ireland of strong growth and no inflation looks set to continue for a while yet.