Ireland has high level of shopping space

Retail ResearchA report from Jones Lang LaSalle ranks Ireland as having the third highest level of shopping space per person in Europe, writes Stephen Murray

Ireland has the third highest quantity of shopping space per person in Europe, ahead of the UK, France and Spain, and far ahead of the likes of Germany.

This fact, revealed by recent Jones Lang LaSalle pan-European retail research, might suggest that we are more than adequately, if not over-supplied, with shopping centres.

Dig below the surface, however, and one can see how superficial such a judgement would be. First of all, the two countries in first and second place are the Netherlands and Sweden, two well-established and "mature" markets. As the report points out, retail is a dynamic sector and new space can provide a competitive advantage in a sophisticated market. There is no need to worry yet that we have too many shopping centres.

Indeed, the research suggests that the pipeline of new shopping centre space in Ireland is about half that of the UK, in spite of the huge disparity in population sizes. In this respect, retail mirrors the residential market where the number of new homes being built is very large compared to the number of new homes being built in Britain with its much greater population.

That is not to say that retail space has stopped expanding in Britain; as in France, the emphasis there has been on the redevelopment and extension of existing facilities. Few new shopping centres will open in Britain in the next year or so but completions will increase in 2008-2009 when a number of major city centre schemes open.

Maturity is being achieved rapidly in Ireland in terms of shopping facilities per head of the population with an increase in retail space of 11 per cent in 2004-2005.

The reasons for the country's dramatic jump up the comparison charts in recent years are not difficult to find. Ireland has the highest GDP per capita of the countries surveyed, ahead of the UK, the Netherlands and Denmark.

Consumer expenditure is the third highest of the 18 countries examined, fractionally behind the UK and Denmark. Ireland is seventh of the countries with the highest projected growth over the next five years, a list that is dominated by Russia and countries in Eastern Europe which have an awful lot more catching up to do than we have.

Guaranteeing the growth will be the projected rise in population whose increase in Ireland is expected to be the third highest in percentage terms (after Spain and Turkey) in the next five years.

Among the other interesting facts about retail in Ireland is the increase in foreign retailers coming to our shores. Ireland has shot up these rankings in recent years with international retailers seeking to take advantage of the economic boom here and the growth in shopping centres. Ireland was placed 11th in that chart in 1990 and only 10th in 2000-2003 whereas we had risen to third place in 2004-2005.

It is now about 50 years since the shopping centre came to Europe from the US and somewhat less since it arrived in Ireland. Overall, the European experience shows no dilution in enthusiasm for the model. Completions are at record levels across Europe, led by the former Eastern bloc countries, with an estimated 4.5 million sq m (48.5 million sq ft) of new shopping centre space being opened in 2005.

This trend is set to continue with some 8 million sq m (86 million sq ft) opening in 2006 and 2007.

The trend is well established in Ireland and we can expect to see the space available continue to increase in the coming years.

Stephen Murray is retail director of Jones Lang LaSalle in DublinThe St Stephen's Green shopping centre in Dublin 2: owners Irish Life and Pierse Moloney, who has a 27 per cent stake in the complex, are examining ways of enhancing the centre. The priority, according to Paul King, head of property at Irish Life, will be to improve access between the different floors. It is also hoped to amalgamate some of the shops to make larger units available to leading traders. Photograph: Bryan O'Brien