Bolsonaro allies quick to recognise Lula’s election victory

New president of Brazil must face fiscal crisis following four years of economic mismanagement

The democratic stakes involved in Brazil’s presidential election were laid bare on Sunday, in case anyone still needed a reminder after four years of authoritarian threats from far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro.

During the day security forces under the president’s command engaged in a blatant attempt at voter suppression in regions that lean heavily towards his opponent, former left-wing president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Then, after a nail-biting count when Lula was declared the winner by the tightest margin in the country’s history, Bolsonaro refused to acknowledge defeat.

As he maintained a brooding silence in Brasília, truckers – one of his key political constituencies – started blockading key highways in several states, demanding the military intervene to deny the will of voters in the world’s fifth-largest democracy.

Whatever Bolsonaro’s next move, the events of Sunday point to a tense transition before Lula is sworn into office on New Year’s Day.

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“Anywhere in the world, the defeated president would have already called me to concede. So far he hasn’t called. I don’t know if he is going to call and I don’t know if he’ll concede in any case,” Lula warned in a speech before jubilant supporters packing São Paulo’s main avenue on Sunday night.

Pretext to resist

The country’s military has said it will only present its analysis on the integrity of the vote – a mission with no basis in the constitution – on January 5th, which could provide Bolsonaro a pretext to resist conceding for some time yet. And the longer he does so risks igniting the potential for violence from his most radical supporters, whom he urged to arm themselves for exactly this moment.

But the cost of trying to imitate former US president Donald Trump and contest defeat has been raised for Bolsonaro by the swift recognition of Lula’s victory by Brazil’s political class. This has been reinforced by rapid international support for Brazil’s democratic process. In 2020, Bolsonaro took 38 days to acknowledge Joe Biden’s victory in the US presidential election. On Sunday, Biden took less than 40 minutes to recognise Lula’s win in “free, fair and credible elections”.

Among those to quickly recognise Lula’s victory were the defeated president’s allies who hold the reins in congress. He had forged an alliance with these wily operators at the cost of handing them large parts of the federal budget which disappeared into a black hole of corrupt pork-barrel politicking. The arrangement saved him from impeachment but was always one of convenience rather than conviction.

Sectors to repair

Now these congressional leaders are already looking at how to maintain some of their increased control over federal receipts in return for helping Lula tackle his most pressing mission, fixing the huge fiscal hole left by Bolsonaro’s reckless pre-election spending spree that is key to understanding his better-than expected-performance in the election.

The looming fiscal crisis is just one of many that Lula will inherit after the four years of mismanagement – much of it intentional – Brazil suffered under Bolsonaro. Whole areas of the federal government’s apparatus in such critical sectors as education, health and environmental protection will need major repair.

Lula will also need to restore a measure of equilibrium to relations between the country’s institutions which were so upset by the far-right’s sudden arrival at the heart of Brazilian politics where it will remain in force even after Bolsonaro’s defeat, one that he is coming under increasing pressure to recognise.

Meanwhile, the politician tipped to become Brazil’s new environment minister has paid tribute to murdered British journalist Dom Phillips and said Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s incoming government will battle to honour the memory of the rainforest martyrs killed trying to safeguard the Amazon.

Speaking after Lula’s historic election victory on Sunday, Marina Silva said Brazil now had the chance to build “a new democratic ecosystem” in which conservation, sustainability and the climate crisis would take centre-stage after Bolsonaro’s era of Amazon destruction.

Tom Hennigan

Tom Hennigan

Tom Hennigan is a contributor to The Irish Times based in South America