The United States and China both called yesterday on Thailand and Cambodia to show restraint after border clashes erupted again this week, killing at least 14 people and forcing tens of thousands to flee their homes. Both great powers are entangled on both sides of the conflict.
No space for diplomacy?
Thailand and Cambodia have blamed one another for this week’s fighting, which has seen rocket and artillery attacks and air strikes along the border. Cambodia said on Tuesday that the latest clashes had killed seven civilians and injured 20 while Thailand said three soldiers had died.
Thailand’s foreign minister, Sihasak Phuangketkeow, said Cambodia had shown by its actions that it was not ready for peace negotiations.
“Diplomacy will work when the situation provides the space for diplomacy,” he told Al Jazeera.
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“I’m sorry to say that right now we don’t have that space.”
Cambodia said it was ready to start talks “one hour from now” but added that it would not initiate the process itself.
This is the most serious flare-up since five days of fighting in July left at least 48 dead and forced 300,000 people from their homes until a ceasefire was reached on July 28th with the help of Donald Trump. The US president threatened to impose steep tariffs on both countries if they did not stop fighting and he later built on that ceasefire with the Kuala Lumpur Peace Accord signed in the Malaysian capital during an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) summit on October 26th.
Both countries agreed to withdraw heavy weapons from the border, exchange prisoners, conduct joint demining operations and accept verification by Asean observers. But Thailand suspended the agreement on November 11th after a landmine explosion killed four soldiers patrolling in a disputed border area.
The dispute goes back to a map agreed under the 1907 Franco-Siamese Treaty that Bangkok has long regarded as unfairly drawn in Phnom Penh’s favour. This year has seen tensions rise a number of times, starting in February when Cambodian soldiers and villagers sang their national anthem inside the Ta Moan Thom temple inside disputed territory.
Thailand is the stronger military power by far, a treaty ally of the United States with more than 360,000 active-duty armed service personnel. It has four times Cambodia’s population and an economy ten times bigger.
Cambodia’s armed forces are less than half the size of Thailand’s and its defence budget is only a quarter of its neighbour’s. China has helped Cambodia to modernise its armed forces, although Phnom Penh has also cultivated defence ties with Washington while Beijing has increased co-operation with Bangkok.
Both China and the US are pressuring Cambodia to clamp down on an extensive industry of online scammers that has also become a source of political friction in Thailand. But despite some high-profile arrests and extraditions, the criminal gangs continue to operate.
The US has been wooing Cambodia in an attempt to weaken its links with China and Phnom Penh has handled Trump well, playing up his role in brokering the ceasefire and nominating him for the Nobel Peace Prize earlier this year. Trump cut Cambodia’s tariff to 19 per cent, the same as Thailand’s, and lifted an arms embargo imposed by the Biden administration.
Asean’s approach to conflict resolution has traditionally been to try to turn down the temperature on disputes to make them manageable rather than making a decisive intervention. This has so far proven to be ineffective with Thailand and Cambodia, and the United Nations has done little apart from issuing expressions of concern.
Thailand has urged Washington not to use tariffs to apply pressure for an end to the fighting, arguing that trade and peace were separate issues. But Trump may conclude that if the threat of higher tariffs helped to stop the fighting once, it might be the only way to get his peace accord back on track.
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