RUGBY WORLD CUP 2011 Ireland v AustraliaTHIS IS it then, the one that has been circled since December 2008. A World Cup-defining game, maybe even a generation-defining game. For the last of Ireland's golden generation, this is a landmark date in their last opportunity for redemption after previous World Cup anti-climaxes, though for a new generation in gold, greatness also beckons.
The newly refurbished, 60,000-capacity Eden Park will be close to full with green and gold for the prime time Saturday night slot. The thousands of Irish ex-pats are, as Brian O’Driscoll noted dryly yesterday, likely to be swelled by native support. The Wallabies aren’t exactly popular hereabouts.
The theory probably still holds true that the winners will earn themselves a potentially more negotiable route in the knock-out stages.
Along the way, it has looked less daunting for Ireland than, unsurprisingly, it has begun to do of late, with the Wallabies arriving as Tri- Nations champs while a stuttering Ireland seek to rediscover the form that thrashed a Slam-seeking England last March.
Historically, Ireland have performed better against Australia than the other Tri-Nations superpowers, twice losing epic World Cup encounters by a point, and one-score defeats on end-of-season tours sandwiching a draw at Croke Park in November with a last-ditch try by O’Driscoll.
O’Driscoll made his debut against the Wallabies and though he has a 2-1-8 record with Ireland against them, he made his name (‘Waltzing O’Driscoll’ and all that) with his try for the Lions in the victorious first Test in Melbourne in 2001. He finished superbly again in that aforementioned 2003 game, and scored his fourth Test try in all against the Wallabies to salvage a draw with the last play of the game in November 2009.
In light of Digby Ioane’s fractured thumb, James O’Connor returning to the starting line-up as first-choice goal-kicker, with Adam Ashley-Cooper moving from right to left wing and Anthony Fainga’a retaining his outside centre position despite an unconvincing performance against Italy. Inside him, Pat McCabe has been a real emergence at inside centre, full of straight running and someone who stopped Ma’a Nonu as if he was running into a wall. Not many do that.
Tension bubbled underneath the surface throughout a hugely attended Australian press conference. The Wallabies oozed confidence bordering on arrogance, though their typical recalcitrance was understandable here.
First, O’Connor straight-batted his return to the starting line-up after missing the Wallabies’ official World Cup squad announcement, before lengthy questioning of the New Zealand-born Quade Cooper over his status as Public Enemy Number One (in the New Zealand Herald anyway) for recent spats with Richie McCaw, which also prompted the 1991 Australian World Cup captain Nick Farr Jones to brandish him “a boofhead” which may ultimately backfire in the final. At one point Deans was even moved to remark: “Any questions about Ireland?”
The few there were prompted the usual platitudes, although Deans (in his 50th Test as Wallabies coach) states they are taking the English performance as Ireland’s formguide rather than their August warm-ups.
Drew Mitchell has made a remarkable recovery from dislocating his ankle against the Reds in April when, as he put it, “my knee was facing north and my foot was facing east”, to earn a place on the bench after one outing for the Australian Barbarians.
O’Connor may fill Ioane’s out-half channel in defence, with Cooper moved to wing or, as likely, fullback. While hiding Cooper’s defensive frailties, it’s also turned a weakness into a strength given his kicking game and counter-attacking.
In this and their inventiveness in broken play and particularly off turnover ball, Australia are much more potent, all the more so from long-range. Ditto their back play and attacking game off set-piece or phase play, with dangerman Will Genia sniping or launching close-in runners, and Cooper augmenting his running game with his staggering offloading and long passing.
Their scrum, helped by a loud media campaign, has improved, and Dan Vickerman adds bite to their tight five, while the backrow clash could be worth the admission money alone. Rocky Elsom, who has signed a new two-year deal with the Waratahs, will probably have a big game, Radike Samo has added freakish if not always sustained power and dynamism, and then there’s David Pocock’s vulture-like ability to steal or slow down ball at the breakdown.
As Alan Gaffney hinted earlier in the midweek, the inside backs (Jonny Sexton, Gordon D’Arcy and Brian O’Driscoll) need to run straighter than they have and not crowd the space out wide. It’s all within their compass, and the return of Seán O’Brien especially ups their ball-carrying game considerably.
Another good start, a la all of the Six Nations games or France at home, would help to blow away August and the USA, and a la the England game, can be sustained this time. But there remains the likelihood that if push does come to shove, there’ll still be 10 or 15 minutes – most probably in the second half – when Australia will decisively ratchet up the tempo.
Bottom line, Ireland haven’t beaten a Tri-Nations team down south in 30 years. Yet, while it’s a leap of faith after recent form, in keeping with tradition, the Wallabies tend not to blow Ireland away physically as South Africa and New Zealand often do. It will require a massive, mean-spirited physical effort, but rugby is as much mental. Thus, if as inspired as one suspects they might be, Ireland can rattle their cage and at least die with their boots on.
OVERALL HEAD-TO-HEAD: Played 20, Ireland 8 wins, 1 draw, Australia 11 wins.
RWC MEETINGS:(1987) Australia 33 Ireland 15; (1991, qf) Ireland 18 Australia 19; (1999) Ireland 3 Australia 23; (2003) Australia 16 Ireland 15).
RWC RECORDS: Australia – Played 34, 28 wins, 6 defeats. Best placings: Winners ('91 and '99), runners-up ('03). Ireland – Played 25, 13 wins, 12 losses. Best placing: quarter-finals ('87, '91, '95, '03).
BETTING(Paddy Power): 1/5 Australia, 33/1 Draw, 4/1 Ireland. Handicap odds (Ireland + 11pts) Evens Australia, 25/1 Draw, Evens Ireland.
FORECAST: Australia to win, but they may have to earn it.
IRELAND
15 (Leinster) Rob Kearney
14 (Ospreys) Tommy Bowe
13 (Leinster, capt) Brian O’Driscoll
12 (Leinster) Gordon D’Arcy
11 (Munster) Keith Earls
10 (Leinster) Jonny Sexton
9 (Leinster) Eoin Reddan
1 (Leinster) Cian Healy
2 (Ulster) Rory Best
3 (Leinster) Mike Ross
4 (Munster) Donncha O’Callaghan
5 (Munster) Paul O’Connell
6 (Ulster) Stephen Ferris
7 (Leinster) Seán O’Brien
8 (Leinster) Jamie Heaslip
Replacements: S Cronin (Leinster), T Court (Leinster), D Ryan (Munster), D Leamy (Munster), C Murray (Munster), R O’Gara (Munster), A Trimble (Ulster).
AUSTRLIA
15 Kurtley Beale (Melbourne Rebels)
14 James O’Connor (Melbourne Rebels)
13 Anthony Fainga’a (Queensland Reds)
12 Pat McCabe (ACT Brumbies)
11 Adam Ashley-Cooper (ACT Brumbies)
10 Quade Cooper (Queensland Reds)
9 Will Genia (Queensland Reds)
1 Sekope Kepu (NSW Waratahs)
2 Stephen Moore (Brumbies)
3 Ben Alexander (Brumbies)
4 Dan Vickerman (NSW Waratahs)
5James Horwill (Queensland Reds, capt)
6 Rocky Elsom (Brumbies)
7 David Pocock (Western Force)
8 Radike Samo (Queensland Reds)
Replacements: T Palota-Nau (NSW Waratahs), J Slipper (Queensland Reds), R Simmons (Queensland Reds), B McCalman (Western Force), S Higginbotham (Queensland Reds), L Burgess (NSW Waratahs), D Mitchell (NSW Waratahs)
Referee: Bryce Lawrence (New Zealand)
