Jim McGuinness: Armagh driven by vicarious experience

Armagh made a statement of intent within the first 10 seconds of their pulsating win over Donegal last Sunday.

But the transformation of their season began in the hours and days after they left Ballybofey racked with doubt seven weeks ago, having been on the receiving end of a hard championship lesson from the same opposition.

For 25 minutes, we were treated to an out and out classic last Sunday. Both teams had a point to prove – to themselves, to the world.

Look at the determined nature of Rian O’Niall’s catch after the throw in; it was carried through to Rory Grugan’s finish for one of the goals of the summer.

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But Donegal’s response to that setback was exceptional. Within a minute, they forced Armagh’s kick-out long and having secured possession created a good goal scoring chance of their own. And just like that, the contest exploded into life.

Ryan McHugh and Michael Murphy kicked brilliant scores and Donegal were 0-4 to1-0 up after seven minutes. They unveiled a transitional moment using a collective pace that I hadn’t seen in a few years: a lightning quick burst up the field. It was 0-9 to 1-2 after 22 minutes and Armagh looked on the ropes just then.

But that was it. Armagh went into overdrive. They were level by the half hour mark and then came the black card debacle for Donegal, from which the team – and therefore the contest – never recovered. O’Neill was the dominant figure over the afternoon and Stephen Sheridan completed the route with Armagh’s third goal.

The final tally of 3-17 to 0-16 is a blazing scoreline. Leaving Ballybofey on April 24th it would have been hard to imagine this outcome.

In fact, the narrative that day was that Donegal had cruised to victory and that Armagh were, in a very real sense, lost. I remember leaving the ground that day and being aware of the heavy silence among the Armagh contingent. They were stunned and trying to figure why their team had failed to fire.

It is during those moments that players can question themselves. And the same is true for the management. It is when your confidence and integrity is tested. Whispers emanated then. Rather than give the players a few days off, the Armagh management decided to double down and go even harder at their training. They had six weeks until their qualifier game. They purged themselves.

And they got the draw they needed rather than the one they wanted. They drew the All-Ireland champions on home turf. And it helped that this was not just an Ulster team but the noisy neighbours. They had Tyrone!

Albert Bandura, the acclaimed Stanford psychologist, has written brilliantly on the subject of vicarious experience, which I believe can play a powerful part in sport.

He defines self-efficacy as “a psychological mechanism that inhabits an individual’s belief surrounding their capabilities to formulate control over situations that affect their lives”.

So it can be seen as a situationally specific self-confidence. So according to Bandura, expectations of personal self-efficacy are based on four sources of information: performance accomplishments, vicarious experiences, verbal persuasion and physiological states.

The area I am most interested here is vicarious experience, which in a general sense delivers an experience derived from someone else. I believe this has had a huge impact on the trajectory of football in Ulster. I feel that Donegal winning the All-Ireland in 1992 was hugely influenced by them watching Down winning it in 1991. Watching that infused them with confidence.

And a year later, Derry drew on that same experience in watching Donegal. And then Down won it again in 1994. Was it a coincidence that after Armagh won the All-Ireland in 2002 that Tyrone then won it a year later? Having watched the Armagh boys bringing the Sam Maguire into the province?

We are at a fascinating point in the season. The All-Ireland draw has clarified the pathway for all teams. Armagh were in the gutter leaving Ballybofey. Confidence comes from mastery and preparation and knowing you are doing more than the opposition.

That internal focus brings its own surfeit of confidence. So having made the pledge to punish themselves at training, they got this draw against Tyrone. And it demanded elemental questions. Are we as good as Tyrone? Can we beat them? They answered that question. Then fate intervened again in the next draw by pairing them with Donegal. Was this an extension of the draw they needed rather than wanted?

It absolutely was. Not only was it a chance to get to an All-Ireland quarter-final, it was a chance to banish those demons and to redeem themselves after the implosion in April in Ballybofey. It was a chance to show to everyone else what the true Armagh was. And so now, they vault into the last eight surging in self-belief.

In one half of the draw, we have Dublin, Kerry and Mayo, the dominant players at All-Ireland level for the last 15 years, along with Cork – who, remember, won an All-Ireland as recently as 2010.

And then Galway, Armagh, Clare and Derry comprise the other set and each can suddenly and rightly dream of a place in the All-Ireland final. Because one of those four teams will be there! And they are all convinced that it can – that it will! – be them. But whichever team gets there will do so because of a number of factors. Belief and confidence are central to those.

Derry were probably happiest after the draw. Armagh have all the momentum. But Galway have a provincial title, a game plan and quality players. But what Galway also possess is an inherent sense of entitlement. They are the regal passengers in that half of the draw. Historically, they are an All-Ireland calibre county. They are thinking – Pádraic Joyce will certainly be thinking – we can and should be in an All-Ireland final.

And last but far from least, Clare are also in a lovely place. They know these teams and will not fear them.

The point is, what happens for each of these four teams after this is not just about football ability. It is about how teams see themselves and project where they should be.

Derry and Armagh will feel they should be there based on that vicarious experience of watching Tyrone 2021: to put it in the vernacular that you won’t find in the pages of Bandura: `if those f***ers can do it, so can we`.

So which of these four teams is best-placed to capitalise on what is a rare opportunity to get to an All-Ireland final without meeting the established three?

The answer, in many respects, will depend on whichever team has the clearest vision of being there, on All-Ireland final day, in their mind’s eye.