Dublin's high tempo game will see them home

GAELIC GAMES:What I like about Wexford is they play with a certain amount of abandon, and that's a joy to watch. But it won't be as easy against a tight Dublin defence, writes JOHN O'KEEFFE

THREE YEARS ago Wexford made the Leinster football final for the first time since 1956 – without having won since 1945 – and there’s no doubt they were happy just to be there. The reality is they were comprehensively beaten by Dublin on that occasion, particularly in the second half, and the big lesson there was it’s no good bolting out of the blocks and staying with Dublin for the first 15 or 20 minutes: you have to match them for the 70 minutes, and that’s the big challenge facing them in Croke Park tomorrow.

But there’s no doubt either Wexford will have learned from 2008, and the experience will stand to them. Jason Ryan will know they’ll have to approach this game differently; they’ll also be more mature, and more confident – and the intention this time has to be to win, not just be content with a good performance. There will be the belief in their own minds that they can go out and win.

However, I would have a few concerns. First of all Wexford had the so-called “easier” route to the final, beating Offaly, Westmeath and then Carlow. They may have been racking up big scores, but that can give a false impression. The key scoring forwards of Shane Roche, Ciarán Lyng, Ben Brosnan and Redmond Barry will certainly feel confident, but you have to wonder if they’ve been fully tested, or rather as tightly marked, as the Dublin defence will surely do.

Sunday is a whole different challenge for them, because there’s no way they’ll get the same space and time on the ball that they did against the likes of Carlow and Westmeath. Pat Gilroy will also have earmarked the likes of Barry and Lyng for additional attention, aware of the scoring threat. Likewise with the Wexford defence, who haven’t yet faced anything like the pace and pressure that the Dublin forwards will present. The reality is they simply haven’t been tested or stretched yet.

Having said all that, Wexford have held up against the likes of Cork, Galway and even Dublin over the last few years, and they’ll have to believe they’re up to this. In fact they should have beaten Dublin early in the Leinster championship last year, although there’s no doubt Dublin are now a much improved outfit overall. Look at the form of Bernard Brogan, Eoghan O’Gara and Diarmuid Connolly, and you have to worry whether the Wexford defence will be able to hold them.

Even if Bernard Brogan is successfully marked, by drawing two defenders onto him, that creates space for the other Dublin forwards – the same way Colm ‘Gooch’ Cooper created space for other Kerry forwards after being so tightly marked against Cork last Sunday.

Connolly is in excellent form, even if he’s a little obsessed with the green flag, rather than simply taking his points. But Alan Brogan’s return to form has been huge for Dublin as well: the way he’s running at the defence and creating loads of space proves he’s got a new lease of life. All this considered, I can see the Wexford defence coming under huge pressure. Can they cope? It won’t be easy, and will require some defensive play from midfielders Rory Quinlivan and Daithí Waters.

I think the Wexford forwards will hold their own: their tactic of quick, direct ball will always create scores, but they first need to get their hands on the ball, and the Trojan work-rate of Dublin’s half forwards such as Paul Flynn and Bryan Cullen will ensure that’s very difficult. Outside of Cork and Kerry no team matches Dublin’s overall intensity.

What I like about Wexford is that they play with a certain amount of abandon, and that’s a joy to watch. But it won’t be as easy against a very tight Dublin defence, and a very adept full-back line of Michael Fitzsimons, Rory O’Carroll and Paul Conlon – who are are nearly always first to the ball, and rarely allow their man to win possession. The Wexford forwards will have to play very smart and unselfishly to win any decent ball.

The injury to Michael Dara Macauley represents a big loss to Dublin, because he’s been the best midfielder of the last two years – although it allows Eamon Fennell get an important match run. Overall Dublin’s midfield are essentially link players, moving ball forward, rather than capable of any flashy excellence that the likes of Ciarán Whelan was once famous for.

The other contrast here is that Dublin’s build-up has been ideal, especially the big test and indeed scare against Kildare. Gilroy is making best use of their resources, and the Dublin bench is well equipped to bring in players that can seamlessly continue the playing pattern and tactics. I also think their discipline has been in good order, particularly in limiting the number of frees they concede. O’Gara was a blip on that record the last day, but will have learnt a lesson, because that sort of indiscipline won’t be tolerated.

It’s perhaps obvious that Wexford’s best chance of victory is to stay within a point or two of Dublin going into the last 10 minutes: that’s when Dublin can be vulnerable, especially against a team with scoring forwards, which Wexford have.

What is also key for Wexford is matching Dublin’s work-rate and intensity for the full 70 minutes; fail to do that and the result is a foregone conclusion. Dublin play such a high-tempo game that I fear Wexford will inevitably tire, especially when Dublin start to ask some serious questions of them. All that considered, it’s more likely that Dublin will gradually build a winning advantage, and won’t surrender it.

Looking at some qualifiers, there are a some very interesting showdowns, starting with Laois against Kildare. This is far from a foregone conclusion, and Laois will relish this chance to upset their neighbours, although ultimately Kildare’s greater scoring power should see them through.

Meath against Galway is another high-profile clash, and yet something is missing with Galway’s game right now, and it will be very difficult for them to get the result.

Tyrone won’t be overly confident going to Longford, and the worry here is that Mickey Harte might be showing a little too much loyalty to the old guard, who don’t seem to have the legs anymore. Surely there’s some underage talent coming through, although Tyrone should still be experienced enough to win. And who would believe London are being given such a chance against Waterford? But there’s terrific spirit in the London team and I give them a great chance of winning again and mixing it with the some of the very best teams.

What I like about Wexford is they play with a certain amount of abandon, and that’s a joy to watch. But it won’t be as easy against a tight Dublin defence

“It’s perhaps obvious that Wexford’s best chance of victory is to stay within a point or two of Dublin going into the last 10 minutes: that’s when Dublin can be vulnerable, especially against a team with scoring forwards, which Wexford have.