The resignation of Michael Healy-Rae as a junior minister, and the related loss of his brother Danny as a backbench supporter, deals a significant blow to the Coalition, the first cut to its majority since it was formed last year.
Politics is about lots of things that aren’t measurable – emotions, hope, loyalty, ambition. But it’s also about things that are measured by clear numbers. And perhaps the most important set of numbers is support in the Dáil, for on that depends the attainment and the exercise of power.
The Coalition still has a comfortable Dáil majority, winning the vote of confidence by 14 votes, 92 to 78.
But Micheál Martin’s majority when he was elected Taoiseach was 19. Veterans of the financial crisis will recall how the majority of the Fianna Fáil-Green government under Brian Cowen seeped away, bit by bit.
READ MORE
The prospect of tougher times ahead for the Government is not unlikely. Tuesday’s events are a sign of the political toll that they may take. The Government looks weaker, more unsure, more brittle.
Michael’s decision to jump ship took his Government colleagues by surprise. His explanation for quitting didn’t quite add up. On Monday, he was telling people that he had worked hard to produce a package to help people and he was committed to continuing to work in Government.
On Tuesday, he said that he had been coming to the gradual understanding in recent days that the people of Kerry were fed up with the Government and he could no longer be part of it.
Rightly or wrongly, the perception remains around Leinster House that Danny – always uncomfortable with some of the requirements of supporting the Government – had decided to walk, and therefore Michael couldn’t stay. Blood is thicker than water. Plus, it might be difficult to explain to the people of Kerry that one Healy-Rae was in, while the other was out. Whatever the truth of it, Michael didn’t look happy with his lot.
The exodus of the Healy-Raes turned what was looking like a humdrum Dáil occasion into a day that left the Government reeling. After predictable opening exchanges, Opposition deputies seemed to have lost interest with only a scattering of TDs left on the benches. Everything changed after Michael got to his feet.
Three further points can be made about the day.
One, it felt like we were entering a new phase in the Government’s life and in politics more generally, one where pressure on the administration from external economic circumstances will become the norm. That pressure will be felt individually by TDs who support the Coalition.
Two, it is clear that Independent Ireland – whose contributions to the debate were delivered in angry roars – are making a play to be the political vehicle for the considerable political energy and anger now evident. Much of that is on the right, and some of it is on the far-right – though it is demanding not a smaller state but a larger and more interventionist one. This is in tune with similar movements abroad. It is also clear that left-wing parties in the Opposition are fiercely hostile to this.
Finally, with the honourable exception of a few speeches – Dara Calleary’s was one – there was little mention of the looming reality that an international economic slowdown will mean that the Government’s ability to throw money at problems will not last forever.
As the Dáil was roaring, the International Monetary Fund warned that the global outlook has “abruptly darkened” following the outbreak of war in the Middle East. It warned that the conflict could still cause a global “energy crisis on an unprecedented scale”. But, you know, the Healy-Raes.
