Moscow has raced ahead of the US and China to ditch its disdain for a strategic gateway in Central Asia, writes DAN McLAUGHLIN
RUSSIA IS moving quickly to secure a dominant position in Kyrgyzstan, as violence grips a Central Asian nation where Moscow is vying for influence with the United States and China.
As deadly riots rocked Kyrgyzstan and forced President Kurmanbek Bakiyev to flee the capital, Bishkek, Russia was the first nation to promise humanitarian help to the country, to send reinforcements to its military contingent there and to welcome the emergence of what it called a “government of national confidence”.
Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin was quick to speak by telephone with Roza Otunbayeva, the former foreign minister who now leads Kyrgyzstan’s interim government, and one of her allies was in Moscow yesterday to seek financial support to alleviate an economic crisis.
All this is extremely unusual for Russia, which frowned upon the 2005 so-called “Tulip Revolution” that brought Bakiyev to power, and condemned the Rose and Orange revolutions that replaced Moscow-friendly regimes with leaders who were firm allies of the US and EU.
Putin knows he must move quickly in Kyrgyzstan to make Russia the key ally of what will probably be the new government, knowing that Washington and Beijing are also determined to boost their influence across Central Asia with huge strategic and energy value.
While mountainous Kyrgyzstan does not boast the oil and gas reserves of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, it is vital as a gateway to Afghanistan for US troops who have established a major “transit centre” at Manas airport outside Bishkek.
Some 1,100 US and Nato troops are stationed at Manas, and most of the US soldiers serving in Afghanistan and some 30 per cent of fuel in the country arrive through there. Under pressure from Russia, Bakiyev pledged to kick US troops out of Manas, only to subsequently extend Washington’s lease in return for a much higher rent – money that Bakiyev’s critics say has gone straight into the pockets of his family and close allies.
Bakiyev’s relationship with Russia grew worse from then on, and reached a low point in recent weeks when the US announced it would open an “anti-terrorism” centre in Kyrgyzstan to supposedly help train its forces to fight insurgents.
This appears to have been the last straw for Russia, whose state-controlled television ramped up criticism of Bakiyev and his Tulip Revolution, prompting Kyrgyzstan to lodge an official complaint about biased media coverage with Moscow’s embassy in Bishkek.
This coincided with a surge of public opposition to Bakiyev over his alleged corruption, his mismanagement of the economic crisis, and his sometimes brutal suppression of critical voices in the domestic media and politics.
After fleeing Bishkek for his native region in southern Kyrgyzstan, Bakiyev complained of the presence of foreign powers behind his usurpation. “Such a co-ordinated operation is practically impossible to carry out without outside forces,” he said.
Scrambling to work out what was happening in a remote country riven with clan rivalries and feuds between political and business rivals, US officials were cautious not to show overt support for Otunbayeva, even while Moscow was effectively establishing “facts on the grounds” by recognising her legitimacy.
Washington was quick, however, to play down fears it was being outmanoeuvred by Russia in Central Asia or could suffer if Otunbayeva entrenched herself as the leader of a new pro-Moscow government in Kyrgyzstan. “The people that are allegedly running Kyrgyzstan . . . these are all people we’ve had contact with for many years,” said Michael McFaul, the White House’s director of Russian affairs. “This is not some anti-American coup, that we know for sure . . . This is not some sponsored-by-the-Russians coup. There’s just no evidence of that.”
Several analysts said the uprising did appear to be a spontaneous “people’s revolt”, born of poverty, anger at corruption and frustration that Bakiyev had turned what was Central Asia’s most liberal and democratic country into a repressive basket case.
But there is no doubt Russia was sick of Bakiyev – Putin was quick to blame him for making the same mistakes as the corrupt and nepotistic leader he ousted in 2005 – and is seeking to mould the white-hot situation in Kyrgyzstan to its advantage.
A senior Russian official said this week, on condition of anonymity: “Bakiyev did not fulfil his promise about the withdrawal of the American base. In Kyrgyzstan there should be only one base – Russian.”
Fears of an infiltration into Central Asia of Islamist militants from Afghanistan only adds to the worries of Russia, the US and China – which shares a mountainous 850km (530-mile) border with Kyrgyzstan.
“They are preparing the ground for a long, sustained military campaign in Central Asia,” regional expert Ahmed Rashid said recently. “There is now a real threat because the Islamist surge is combined with an economic and political crisis.”
Dan McLaughlin is based in Budapest and writes about eastern Europe, Russia and the Caucasus