Confusion and uncertainty reign in the Republican camp now that Mitt Romney has secured his first victory in the US primaries. Michigan was an essential victory for him, which he hopes will propel him forward in South Carolina, Nevada, Florida and when 22 states vote in the super-Tuesday contest on February 5th. But his principal opponents, Mike Huckabee and John McCain, having won in Iowa and New Hampshire, may yet be joined as front-runners by former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani who is staking all on a victory in Florida.
Together they represent the four main political and social strands on which the Republican party has built the winning coalition that has governed the US for most of the last 27 years. The question now is whether it will regroup or disintegrate. Mr Romney is the quintessential Wall Street insider. A former governor and venture capitalist campaigning on his ability to rescue Michigan from recession, his message resonates with a US middle class newly exposed to just such a threat at national level. His wealth will make a difference in the forthcoming races if they are close-fought, despite his uninspiring persona.
Mr Huckabee is a much more engaging campaigner. His base in the party's evangelical Christian wing has been combined with a similar sensitivity to growing economic insecurity - but from quite a different direction, as was revealed in his barbed comment about Mr Romney that voters would prefer someone who looks like the people they work with rather than the guy who laid them off. Mr Huckabee badly needs another boost, but either way his unexpectedly strong performance on a platform of greater social equality, criticism of US power projection abroad and conservative social values perfectly illustrate the concerns of many ordinary Republican voters.
Mr McCain was re-energised by the New Hampshire result. Part of his appeal is that he has consistently defended his position as a foreign policy hawk committed to staying the course in Iraq, despite the war's growing unpopularity. He is playing a long game which could well pay off. Mr Giuliani hopes to outflank him in Florida by cultivating fears about the continuing danger from Islamic terrorism, the fourth strand of Republican campaigning.
The Bush administration's serial political, foreign policy and fiscal incompetences hang heavily over the Republican candidates, all of whom do their best to distance themselves from the White House. If stalemate persists their candidate will be brokered at the August convention. The Democrats have so far won hands down on energy, drama and political credibility.