ANALYSIS:While people have more confidence in the Government's ability to act, they still don't like what it is doing, writes STEPHEN COLLINS
WHILE THERE was some relief for the Government in the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll, the long-term trend for both of the Coalition parties is ominous. Only a dramatic change in the public mood over the next 18 months to two years can save them from a hiding at the next election.
The positive news for the Government is that it seems to have earned some respect from the public for the decisive measures it has taken in the budget, if the increase in the satisfaction ratings for both the Government and the Taoiseach are anything to go by.
Coupled with the modest increase in support for Fianna Fáil, it suggests that support for the Coalition has at least bottomed out.
The problem is that while people may be coming around to having a bit more confidence in the Government’s ability to act, they still don’t like what it is doing.
The response to the poll questions about the budget indicates that voters are not prepared to give the Coalition much credit for its policies, even if they accept that there isn’t really any viable alternative.
For instance, while the Government’s budgetary strategy of cutting public spending rather than raising taxes is supported by a majority of two to one, the budget itself was regarded as unfair by a similar proportion of voters.
The only conclusion is that, for the present at least, people are not prepared to forgive Fianna Fáil for the state the country is in, regardless of whether they are taking the right approach to getting us out of the mess.
The Greens are clearly suffering grievously from being in the wrong place at the wrong time.
The polls have shown a remarkably consistent trend over the past 12 months. The first poll of 2009 put Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Labour on exactly the same share of the vote as this week’s one, while the Greens and Sinn Féin were marginally stronger a year ago.
With a combined total support of 56 per cent holding firm for a year, Fine Gael and Labour are poised to sweep into power after the next election with a bigger majority than they have ever had when forming governments in the past.
Of course holding on to a commanding lead of more than two to one over the Coalition will not be easy.
It is instructive to look at where all the parties were at the same point of the electoral cycle five years ago. At that stage the Fianna Fáil-led Government had suffered a severe setback in the local and European elections of the previous June, while Fine Gael and Labour had come together in the Mullingar accord to offer the electorate an alternative.
In January 2005 Fianna Fáil was on 38 per cent in The Irish Times poll, three points ahead of the combined Fine Gael total of 22 per cent and Labour’s 13 per cent. When it came to the election 2½ years later the Fianna Fáil lead was still intact and the party retained power without too much difficulty.
The political world is now utterly different and the question is whether Fianna Fáil is capable of recovering the vast amount of ground needed to put up any kind of fight at the next election.
If it pursues the correct economic policies it will have to bring in two more swingeing budgets, which are bound to be unpopular, even if they are accepted as necessary.
The only hope the Government has is that some green shoots of recovery will be evident by the time of the next election. Its problem is that, going on current trends, any credit it may get for doing the right thing will be more than offset by the resentment of voters that such tough measures were required in the first place.
Government strategists are hoping that as an election approaches the alternative coalition will come under scrutiny as voters assess their competence to govern as distinct from merely opposing.
Fine Gael and Labour will not be able to rely solely on the incessant negativity that characterises their current approach but will have to produce at least some policies grounded in economic reality.
Another big hurdle will be convincing the electorate that Enda Kenny can be a successful taoiseach. He has proven to be a very effective party manager but polls show a stubborn resistance by voters to accepting his credentials as a leader. His performance on last week’s Late Late Show showed once again that he has a problem with television, particularly light entertainment programmes.
Those close to him find it difficult to fathom how someone who is warm and engaging consistently fails to do himself justice on television but it is just a fact of life they will have to accept. Fine Gael needs to focus on the strengths that have put it ahead of Fianna Fáil for more than a year and convince the public that the party has a team capable of running an honest and effective government.
Government strategists believe that Brian Cowen’s debating ability is a weapon that will come into play in a general election and rescue Fianna Fáil. Ironically, Cowen also has problems projecting his strengths on television and even if he is capable of winning the argument it won’t necessarily translate into winning the election.
The poll suggests that the majority of voters have decided that they want to see a change of government at the next election.
Even if it does not take place for another two years it will take something extraordinary to shake the electorate’s conviction that change is necessary.