Dublin and London are close to an understanding about what the restorationof devolution will require, writes Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor
Tomorrow evening the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, hope to have in place a broad outline of the deal necessary to restore devolution to Northern Ireland.
Fleshing out the skeleton of an agreement will be the challenging business thereafter. That could take another six to eight weeks, according to British, Irish, Sinn Féin and Ulster Unionist Party sources who are the main players in this do or die haggling,
With a framework established the governments and the parties in the weeks ahead could then start the difficult work of finding accommodation around issues such as IRA activity, demilitarisation, an amnesty for IRA fugitives, policing and stabilising the Stormont institutions when and if they are restored.
Mr Blair, who also has another potential Gulf War to attend to, and Mr Ahern obviously believe they have the power to breath fresh life into the stalled process and the latteris the politician chiefly charged with extracting something close to bottom lines from the main players this week.
"I think the current mood is one of expectation," was how one London source characterised the frame of mind in Downing Street and Government Buildings. "These talks are critical," agreed a Dublin insider. Or to quote a seasoned Belfast observer: "Once the two prime ministers get involved you know there is a game on."
Certainly the expectation in republican circles is that the IRA is prepared to engage in a dramatic gesture to bring back the Executive and Assembly. The question still hanging is will it be big enough, and even if it is will David Trimble embrace it and urge fellow unionists to do likewise?
The sequencing of the meetings this week is interesting. We had Mr Gerry Adams and Mr Martin McGuinness with the Taoiseach yesterday. Mr Ahern meets the SDLP leader, Mr Mark Durkan, today to keep him in the loop and the Taoiseach comes face to face with Mr Trimble in London tomorrow, ahead of his encounter with Mr Blair in Downing Street. Republican sources said that yesterday's meeting did not deal with the nitty-gritty of what the IRA might do, but with requirements that Mr Ahern extract from Mr Blair clear commitments tomorrow to deliver all their outstanding demands.
It's fair to assume though, based on all the mostly behind-the-scenes hard-bargaining of recent weeks, that when Mr Ahern meets Mr Blair he will have an educated fix on what the IRA will do. His engagement with Mr Trimble before that summit is also important because Mr Ahern will seek assurances from the UUP leader that if the IRA comes up trumps he would endorse to his constituency what was on offer from republicans.
Without specifying how far the IRA might go, senior republicans have been indicating a willingness for substantial movement, but only within the context of the full implementation of the Belfast Agreement. What is crucial from Mr Blair's perspective is that irrespective of "disbanding" or "standing down" that the IRA clearly and verifiably demonstrates that it is no longer active, according to London sources. Equally, in the Dáil last October Mr Ahern spoke of his wish to see the IRA totally out of operational business.
Reference to a thesaurus may be required to find acceptable language denoting that the IRA is out of the equation.
THE language from senior Sinn Féin members has been encouraging. Mr Adams described yesterday's meeting as positive, while on MondaySinn Féin chairman, Mr Mitchel McLaughlin, said there would be a "warm and generous" response from republicans if it could be proved that politics were working.
"We are confident we can bring about a situation where the armed struggle tradition within republicanism will be ended. But we can't do it in isolation, we can't do it with opposition, we have to do it in collaboration, with help from the other participants. We need partners in that process as well as partners in making politics work," he added. Certainly at face value, Mr McLaughlin's comments point to a senior republican willingness to take radical action to restore the institutions, ahead of May elections.
The great anxiety of republicans is that any IRA gesture will be pocketed and then rejected as insufficient by Mr Trimble.
Hence the Taoiseach's determination to extract from the UUP leader a commitment that genuine action by the IRA will be reciprocated.
British and Irish sources said last night that hard horse-trading lies ahead but that they are buoyed by the fact "that all sides want to get this done".
A senior member of the Ulster Unionist Party agreed. For David Trimble to run with any new deal the IRA must demonstrate by words and actions that its war is over or the organisation is standing down, he said.
"If the words are matched by a major gesture, say for example the visible decommissioning of 200 AK 47s and a ton-and-a-half of Semtex, then I think we are in business."