When Micheál Martin became leader of Fianna Fáil in 2011, the party was at the lowest ebb in its history and few gave him much chance of reviving its fortunes. More than 14 years later, in his second term as Taoiseach, Martin can justifiably point to those predictions when speculation arises once more about his political future.
It has been a remarkable career in terms of both longevity and achievement. Martin is now the second-longest-serving leader of Fianna Fáil, behind only the party founder Éamon de Valera. He has reshaped the party in his own image and reinvented it for a more fragmented political landscape, not as the dominant force it once was but as a pragmatic party willing to share power with former adversaries.
Following last year’s elections, which reinstated his party as the country’s largest at both national and local level, Martin’s position had rarely looked more secure. That was until last weekend, when the presidential campaign of Jim Gavin – the candidate he had personally chosen as the party’s nominee – collapsed ignominiously.
On Wednesday, Martin faced the wrath of his parliamentary colleagues, some of whom believe they have not always received the respect they deserve from their leader. Reports from inside the lengthy meeting indicate that he expressed deep contrition for what had occurred.
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It is too early to say whether this episode will come to be seen as a significant turning point in the Taoiseach’s career. After last year’s electoral successes, he still has considerable political capital. Under the terms of the Coalition agreement, he has two more years in office before handing over the taoiseach role to Fine Gael. With Fianna Fáil’s centenary celebrations and an Irish presidency of the European Union both ahead in the next 12 months, it seems highly unlikely that he would consider stepping down. A concerted leadership challenge appears equally improbable.
And yet the events of recent days surely make it a little less certain that Martin will lead his party into the next general election, despite his stated intention to do so. If that election takes place as scheduled in 2029, he would be 69 years old. Despite his good health, that would be an unusually advanced age at which to seek a fresh mandate to govern.
Whatever Martin may feel about his own staying power, the fact is that in politics, as in life, time moves on. Younger generations chafe at their thwarted ambitions. Political difficulties, when they arise – as they inevitably will – become evidence of the need for renewal. The hardest act to perform with grace and dignity is the political exit.
For Micheál Martin, that moment may still be some distance away, but it is now possible to see it on the horizon.
